KPIT / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 10 · 21:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

72%

29%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 42.1¢Risks 42.10u

ICONNO 57.9¢Risks 57.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.90u · ICON −57.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	89.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	87.9%	—	6.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	1.9%	—	—	21.2%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	82.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	79.5%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	91.4%	—	—	—	—	29.3%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	67.6%	—	83.5%	43.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	0.8%	—	—	46.9%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	14.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	25.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	19.8%	1.3%	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	95.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	16.2%	83.4%	1.1%	—	44.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	35.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	67.7%	57.3%	4.6%	—	58.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	82.1%	60.6%	67.7%	3.5%	—	59.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	15.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	34.5%	73.9%	35.2%	—	49.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	0.4%	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	70.0%	58.3%	46.7%	30.0%	—	66.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	62.6%	44.0%	27.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	43.9%	87.8%	29.9%	—	87.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	38.5%	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	36.4%	—	70.3%	—	87.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	63.9%	57.5%	88.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	48.0%	38.5%	55.8%	62.4%	0.0%	85.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	45.0%	30.8%	68.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	43.9%	58.2%	41.8%	—	78.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	58.4%	75.5%	—	—	79.5%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	64.9%	27.3%	74.5%	64.9%	—	83.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	63.3%	55.6%	51.1%	0.0%	—	79.4%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	58.1%	44.2%	51.2%	28.9%	16.0%	62.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	33.6%	71.7%	28.3%	—	70.7%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	38.9%	57.4%	37.7%	—	71.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	25.9%	77.2%	37.3%	—	62.7%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	51.3%	27.3%	78.0%	19.1%	18.2%	42.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	59.7%	15.6%	41.7%	24.2%	—	32.5%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	51.4%	16.3%	48.5%	21.2%	34.5%	44.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	23.6%	38.1%	8.6%	—	13.6%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	45.3%	8.9%	31.7%	6.6%	16.1%	21.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	10.7%	26.7%	15.0%	—	26.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	79%	72.5°F	2.5°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	72%	72.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-10 14:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	29%	69.0°F	2.7°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
ICON	5%	64.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261010-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 04 · 03:42 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 71°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗