KPIT / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 11 · 06:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

58%

55%

47%

12%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 44.8¢Risks 44.80u

ICONNO 55.2¢Risks 55.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +55.20u · ICON −55.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T06:46:22+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-08T03:06:22+00:00	83.1%	90.1%	78.3%	50.8%	84.4%
2026-10-08T03:52:31+00:00	83.1%	90.1%	78.3%	50.8%	84.4%
2026-10-08T04:37:38+00:00	83.1%	90.1%	78.3%	50.8%	84.4%
2026-10-08T05:22:44+00:00	83.1%	90.1%	79.9%	50.8%	84.4%
2026-10-08T06:07:55+00:00	83.1%	90.1%	79.9%	50.8%	84.4%
2026-10-08T06:53:02+00:00	83.1%	90.1%	79.9%	50.8%	84.4%
2026-10-08T07:38:12+00:00	86.1%	90.1%	79.9%	31.2%	22.3%
2026-10-08T08:24:43+00:00	86.1%	90.1%	79.9%	31.2%	22.3%
2026-10-08T09:09:49+00:00	86.1%	90.1%	79.9%	31.2%	22.3%
2026-10-08T09:54:56+00:00	86.1%	90.1%	79.9%	31.2%	22.3%
2026-10-08T10:40:02+00:00	86.1%	90.1%	79.9%	31.2%	22.3%
2026-10-08T11:25:16+00:00	86.1%	85.2%	82.2%	31.2%	22.3%
2026-10-08T12:10:40+00:00	86.1%	85.2%	82.2%	31.2%	22.3%
2026-10-08T12:55:49+00:00	86.1%	85.2%	82.2%	31.2%	22.3%
2026-10-08T13:40:56+00:00	89.4%	85.2%	82.2%	31.2%	22.3%
2026-10-08T14:30:25+00:00	89.4%	85.1%	82.2%	31.2%	22.4%
2026-10-08T15:15:50+00:00	89.4%	85.2%	82.2%	31.2%	22.4%
2026-10-08T16:01:32+00:00	89.4%	85.2%	82.2%	31.2%	22.4%
2026-10-08T16:46:38+00:00	89.4%	85.2%	82.2%	31.2%	22.4%
2026-10-08T17:31:44+00:00	89.4%	85.2%	82.2%	31.2%	22.4%
2026-10-08T18:16:49+00:00	89.4%	85.2%	82.2%	31.2%	22.4%
2026-10-08T19:01:54+00:00	89.4%	85.2%	82.2%	31.2%	22.4%
2026-10-08T19:46:59+00:00	80.4%	85.2%	82.2%	53.6%	28.9%
2026-10-08T20:32:12+00:00	80.4%	85.2%	82.2%	53.6%	28.9%
2026-10-08T21:17:20+00:00	80.4%	85.2%	82.2%	53.6%	28.9%
2026-10-08T22:02:30+00:00	80.4%	85.2%	82.2%	53.6%	28.9%
2026-10-08T22:47:36+00:00	80.4%	85.2%	82.2%	53.6%	28.9%
2026-10-08T23:32:43+00:00	80.4%	85.2%	80.7%	53.6%	28.9%
2026-10-09T00:17:55+00:00	80.4%	85.2%	80.7%	53.6%	28.9%
2026-10-09T01:03:07+00:00	80.4%	85.2%	80.7%	53.6%	28.9%
2026-10-09T01:48:12+00:00	79.8%	85.2%	80.7%	53.6%	28.9%
2026-10-09T02:33:33+00:00	79.8%	85.2%	80.7%	53.6%	28.9%
2026-10-09T03:18:49+00:00	79.8%	85.2%	80.7%	53.6%	28.9%
2026-10-09T04:05:04+00:00	79.8%	85.2%	80.7%	53.6%	28.9%
2026-10-09T04:50:12+00:00	79.8%	85.2%	80.7%	53.6%	28.9%
2026-10-09T05:35:18+00:00	79.8%	85.2%	84.5%	53.6%	28.9%
2026-10-09T06:20:26+00:00	79.8%	85.2%	84.5%	53.6%	28.9%
2026-10-09T07:05:32+00:00	79.8%	85.2%	84.5%	53.6%	28.9%
2026-10-09T07:50:45+00:00	70.4%	85.2%	84.5%	92.9%	32.6%
2026-10-09T08:37:12+00:00	70.4%	85.2%	84.5%	92.9%	32.6%
2026-10-09T09:22:17+00:00	70.4%	85.2%	84.5%	92.9%	32.6%
2026-10-09T10:07:23+00:00	70.4%	85.2%	84.5%	92.9%	32.6%
2026-10-09T10:52:29+00:00	70.4%	85.2%	84.5%	92.9%	32.6%
2026-10-09T11:37:36+00:00	70.4%	85.2%	84.5%	92.9%	32.6%
2026-10-09T12:23:10+00:00	70.4%	85.9%	84.5%	92.9%	32.6%
2026-10-09T13:08:25+00:00	70.4%	85.9%	84.5%	92.9%	32.6%
2026-10-09T13:53:30+00:00	73.7%	85.9%	84.4%	92.9%	32.7%
2026-10-09T14:42:07+00:00	73.7%	85.9%	84.4%	92.9%	32.7%
2026-10-10T04:16:36+00:00	75.2%	87.7%	91.7%	76.8%	33.7%
2026-10-10T05:03:03+00:00	75.2%	87.7%	90.2%	76.8%	33.7%
2026-10-10T05:48:13+00:00	75.2%	87.7%	90.2%	76.8%	33.7%
2026-10-10T06:33:20+00:00	75.2%	87.7%	90.2%	76.8%	33.7%
2026-10-10T07:18:25+00:00	75.2%	87.7%	90.2%	76.8%	33.7%
2026-10-10T08:03:30+00:00	73.5%	87.7%	90.2%	76.8%	11.2%
2026-10-10T08:48:39+00:00	73.5%	87.7%	90.2%	76.8%	11.2%
2026-10-10T09:33:44+00:00	73.5%	87.7%	90.2%	76.8%	11.2%
2026-10-10T10:18:54+00:00	73.5%	87.7%	90.2%	76.8%	11.2%
2026-10-10T11:04:03+00:00	73.5%	78.0%	90.2%	76.8%	11.2%
2026-10-10T11:49:13+00:00	73.5%	78.0%	90.2%	76.8%	11.2%
2026-10-10T12:34:18+00:00	73.5%	78.0%	90.2%	76.8%	11.2%
2026-10-10T13:19:24+00:00	73.5%	78.0%	90.2%	76.8%	11.2%
2026-10-10T14:04:42+00:00	75.1%	77.9%	90.2%	76.8%	11.1%
2026-10-10T14:53:45+00:00	75.1%	77.9%	90.2%	76.8%	11.1%
2026-10-10T15:39:24+00:00	75.1%	78.0%	90.2%	76.8%	11.1%
2026-10-10T16:24:36+00:00	75.1%	78.0%	90.2%	77.3%	11.1%
2026-10-10T17:09:43+00:00	75.1%	78.0%	84.7%	77.3%	11.1%
2026-10-10T17:54:52+00:00	75.1%	78.0%	84.7%	77.3%	11.1%
2026-10-10T18:40:19+00:00	75.1%	78.0%	84.7%	77.3%	11.1%
2026-10-10T19:25:30+00:00	66.5%	78.0%	84.7%	77.3%	11.6%
2026-10-10T20:10:40+00:00	66.5%	78.0%	84.7%	77.3%	11.6%
2026-10-10T20:55:54+00:00	66.5%	78.0%	84.7%	77.3%	11.6%
2026-10-10T21:41:27+00:00	66.5%	78.0%	84.7%	77.3%	11.6%
2026-10-10T22:26:41+00:00	66.5%	78.0%	84.7%	55.3%	11.6%
2026-10-10T23:13:29+00:00	66.5%	78.0%	65.9%	55.3%	11.6%
2026-10-10T23:58:37+00:00	66.5%	78.0%	65.9%	55.3%	11.6%
2026-10-11T00:43:43+00:00	66.5%	78.0%	65.9%	55.3%	11.6%
2026-10-11T01:28:58+00:00	58.0%	78.0%	65.9%	55.3%	11.6%
2026-10-11T02:14:10+00:00	58.0%	78.0%	65.9%	55.3%	11.6%
2026-10-11T02:59:17+00:00	58.0%	78.0%	65.9%	55.3%	11.6%
2026-10-11T03:44:33+00:00	58.0%	78.0%	65.9%	55.3%	11.6%
2026-10-11T04:30:38+00:00	58.0%	78.0%	65.9%	55.3%	11.6%
2026-10-11T05:16:01+00:00	58.0%	78.0%	47.3%	55.3%	11.6%
2026-10-11T06:01:14+00:00	58.0%	78.0%	47.3%	55.3%	11.6%
2026-10-11T06:46:22+00:00	58.0%	78.0%	47.3%	55.3%	11.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	78%	68.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-11 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	66.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-10 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	66.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	66.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	47%	65.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-10 18:00	Pending
ICON	12%	61.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261011-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 08 · 03:06 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗