KPIT / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 11 · 06:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

58%

55%

47%

12%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 44.8¢Risks 44.80u

ICONNO 55.2¢Risks 55.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +55.20u · ICON −55.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	30.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	2.1%	—	—	52.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	94.6%	—	—	—	—	71.3%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	91.0%	—	—	—	—	80.4%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	—	—	59.0%	86.7%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	99.3%	—	—	—	—	81.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	94.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	99.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	98.7%	—	—	—	—	83.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	98.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	94.2%	—	—	81.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	86.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	95.2%	43.9%	33.6%	—	—	88.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	31.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	98.3%	88.5%	14.9%	2.3%	—	94.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	98.1%	—	89.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	53.6%	14.4%	97.5%	75.1%	—	91.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	90.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	73.6%	74.2%	13.8%	88.2%	—	89.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	26.8%	64.8%	35.9%	—	92.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	58.1%	17.9%	96.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	62.3%	30.0%	—	30.8%	—	82.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	64.2%	30.3%	24.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	61.3%	68.6%	59.6%	31.4%	—	60.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	65.8%	59.8%	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	57.3%	77.7%	47.2%	16.6%	—	42.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	51.9%	28.4%	35.2%	—	—	57.5%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	19.0%	21.0%	14.2%	—	51.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	62.8%	42.0%	49.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	23.5%	12.8%	40.8%	9.0%	54.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	34.5%	48.9%	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	36.1%	13.7%	36.1%	—	76.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	50.0%	25.8%	3.5%	—	87.1%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	36.3%	46.5%	34.1%	13.4%	87.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	33.6%	39.3%	30.4%	66.4%	—	81.7%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	16.6%	30.9%	30.9%	—	74.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	17.4%	37.3%	28.0%	—	57.7%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	15.7%	28.4%	21.0%	12.7%	51.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	15.6%	31.2%	13.9%	—	36.3%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	8.9%	45.7%	13.0%	10.2%	16.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	9.2%	6.0%	1.4%	—	7.0%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	4.4%	10.2%	10.2%	16.1%	19.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.0%	6.3%	28.1%	—	6.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	78%	68.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-11 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	66.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-10 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	66.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	66.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	47%	65.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-10 18:00	Pending
ICON	12%	61.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261011-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 08 · 03:06 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗