KPIT / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 06 · 14:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

78%

68%

51%

16%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 47.2¢Risks 47.20u

ICONNO 52.8¢Risks 52.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.80u · ICON −52.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-06T14:43:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-05T03:55:11+00:00	96.3%	63.5%	98.4%	89.0%	73.1%
2026-10-05T04:41:06+00:00	96.3%	63.5%	98.4%	89.0%	73.1%
2026-10-05T05:26:16+00:00	96.3%	63.5%	98.4%	89.0%	73.1%
2026-10-05T06:11:27+00:00	96.3%	63.5%	98.4%	89.0%	73.1%
2026-10-05T06:56:32+00:00	96.3%	63.5%	98.4%	89.0%	73.1%
2026-10-05T07:41:46+00:00	44.0%	63.5%	98.4%	77.6%	13.8%
2026-10-05T08:28:13+00:00	44.0%	63.5%	98.4%	77.6%	13.8%
2026-10-05T09:13:29+00:00	44.0%	63.5%	98.4%	77.6%	13.8%
2026-10-05T09:58:35+00:00	44.0%	63.5%	98.4%	77.6%	13.8%
2026-10-05T10:43:41+00:00	44.0%	63.5%	98.4%	77.6%	13.8%
2026-10-05T11:28:48+00:00	44.0%	60.5%	93.4%	77.6%	13.8%
2026-10-05T12:14:15+00:00	44.0%	60.5%	93.4%	77.6%	13.8%
2026-10-05T12:59:26+00:00	44.0%	60.5%	93.4%	77.6%	13.8%
2026-10-05T13:44:43+00:00	6.6%	60.5%	93.4%	77.6%	13.8%
2026-10-05T14:34:08+00:00	6.6%	60.4%	93.3%	77.6%	13.8%
2026-10-05T15:19:21+00:00	6.6%	60.4%	93.3%	77.6%	13.8%
2026-10-06T04:07:40+00:00	32.5%	60.4%	67.9%	77.6%	59.8%
2026-10-06T04:53:29+00:00	32.5%	60.4%	86.5%	77.6%	59.8%
2026-10-06T05:38:45+00:00	32.5%	60.4%	86.5%	77.6%	59.8%
2026-10-06T06:23:51+00:00	32.5%	60.4%	86.5%	77.6%	59.8%
2026-10-06T07:08:57+00:00	32.5%	60.4%	86.5%	77.6%	59.8%
2026-10-06T07:54:03+00:00	35.0%	60.4%	86.5%	77.6%	16.3%
2026-10-06T08:39:12+00:00	35.0%	60.4%	86.5%	77.6%	16.3%
2026-10-06T09:24:20+00:00	35.0%	60.4%	86.5%	77.6%	16.3%
2026-10-06T10:09:27+00:00	35.0%	60.4%	86.5%	77.6%	16.3%
2026-10-06T10:54:34+00:00	35.0%	78.1%	68.1%	77.6%	16.3%
2026-10-06T11:39:41+00:00	35.0%	78.1%	68.1%	77.6%	16.3%
2026-10-06T12:24:47+00:00	35.0%	78.1%	68.1%	77.6%	16.3%
2026-10-06T13:09:54+00:00	35.0%	78.1%	68.1%	77.6%	16.3%
2026-10-06T13:55:01+00:00	50.8%	78.1%	68.1%	77.6%	16.3%
2026-10-06T14:43:37+00:00	50.8%	78.1%	68.1%	77.6%	16.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	78%	74.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	75.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	68%	72.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-06 03:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	71.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	70.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
ICON	16%	64.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261011-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 05 · 03:55 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗