KPIT / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 06 · 14:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

78%

68%

51%

16%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 47.2¢Risks 47.20u

ICONNO 52.8¢Risks 52.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.80u · ICON −52.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	0.4%	—	—	27.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	45.7%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	88.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	74.2%	—	—	—	—	56.6%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	31.4%	65.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	90.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	89.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	90.6%	—	93.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	92.6%	—	—	—	—	57.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	90.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	93.5%	—	77.4%	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	83.7%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	15.9%	10.2%	—	—	63.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	89.1%	62.4%	2.7%	0.2%	—	77.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	87.9%	—	63.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	2.4%	85.2%	40.6%	—	68.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	63.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	38.0%	2.0%	59.1%	—	62.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	5.3%	26.8%	8.7%	—	67.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	20.7%	2.6%	78.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	5.8%	—	6.1%	—	45.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	5.6%	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	26.9%	19.6%	5.7%	—	20.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	23.5%	19.0%	6.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	16.6%	34.7%	11.0%	1.7%	—	9.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	4.0%	5.9%	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	14.2%	1.8%	2.1%	1.1%	—	11.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	17.7%	7.3%	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	2.2%	0.8%	6.4%	0.4%	11.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	4.2%	8.8%	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	4.2%	0.7%	4.2%	—	25.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	7.9%	1.9%	0.1%	—	38.9%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	3.5%	6.1%	3.1%	0.5%	37.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	3.7%	2.2%	13.9%	—	27.3%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	0.6%	2.0%	2.0%	—	18.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	0.5%	2.6%	1.4%	—	7.7%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.4%	1.2%	0.6%	0.2%	5.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.3%	1.3%	0.2%	—	1.8%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	2.7%	0.2%	0.1%	0.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	78%	74.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	75.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	68%	72.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-06 03:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	71.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	70.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
ICON	16%	64.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261011-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 05 · 03:55 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗