KPIT / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 08 · 00:50 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

11%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 6.1¢Risks 3.03u

WN2NO 94.0¢Risks 46.98u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +46.98u · WN2 −46.98u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-08T00:50:46+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-04T07:29:20+00:00	59.2%	16.2%	59.7%	6.5%	18.3%
2026-10-04T08:15:38+00:00	59.2%	16.2%	59.7%	6.5%	18.3%
2026-10-04T09:00:51+00:00	59.2%	16.2%	59.7%	6.5%	18.3%
2026-10-04T09:45:57+00:00	59.2%	16.2%	59.7%	6.5%	18.3%
2026-10-04T10:31:03+00:00	59.2%	16.2%	59.7%	6.5%	18.3%
2026-10-04T11:16:13+00:00	59.2%	20.0%	55.7%	6.5%	18.3%
2026-10-04T12:01:35+00:00	59.2%	20.0%	55.7%	6.5%	18.3%
2026-10-04T12:46:41+00:00	59.2%	20.0%	55.7%	6.5%	18.3%
2026-10-04T13:32:22+00:00	60.6%	20.0%	55.7%	6.5%	18.3%
2026-10-04T14:21:26+00:00	60.6%	20.0%	55.7%	6.6%	18.6%
2026-10-04T15:06:40+00:00	60.6%	19.4%	55.7%	6.6%	18.6%
2026-10-04T15:52:28+00:00	60.6%	19.4%	55.7%	6.6%	18.6%
2026-10-04T16:37:43+00:00	60.6%	19.4%	55.7%	6.6%	18.6%
2026-10-04T17:22:56+00:00	60.6%	19.4%	47.6%	6.6%	18.6%
2026-10-04T18:08:20+00:00	60.6%	19.4%	47.6%	6.6%	18.6%
2026-10-04T18:53:27+00:00	60.6%	19.4%	47.6%	6.6%	18.6%
2026-10-04T19:38:35+00:00	74.6%	19.4%	47.6%	54.4%	45.9%
2026-10-04T20:23:44+00:00	74.6%	19.4%	47.6%	54.4%	45.9%
2026-10-04T21:08:54+00:00	74.6%	19.4%	47.6%	54.4%	45.9%
2026-10-04T21:54:00+00:00	74.6%	19.4%	47.6%	54.4%	45.9%
2026-10-04T22:39:07+00:00	74.6%	19.4%	47.6%	54.4%	45.9%
2026-10-04T23:24:15+00:00	74.6%	19.4%	76.2%	55.0%	45.9%
2026-10-05T00:09:25+00:00	74.6%	19.4%	76.2%	55.0%	45.9%
2026-10-05T00:54:36+00:00	74.6%	19.4%	76.2%	55.0%	45.9%
2026-10-05T01:39:43+00:00	70.5%	19.4%	76.2%	55.0%	45.9%
2026-10-05T02:24:51+00:00	70.5%	19.4%	76.2%	55.0%	45.9%
2026-10-05T03:09:58+00:00	70.5%	19.4%	76.2%	55.0%	45.9%
2026-10-05T03:55:12+00:00	70.5%	19.4%	76.2%	55.0%	45.9%
2026-10-05T04:41:06+00:00	70.5%	19.4%	76.2%	55.0%	45.9%
2026-10-05T05:26:16+00:00	70.5%	19.4%	76.2%	55.0%	45.9%
2026-10-05T06:11:27+00:00	70.5%	19.4%	76.2%	55.0%	45.9%
2026-10-05T06:56:32+00:00	70.5%	19.4%	76.2%	55.0%	45.9%
2026-10-05T07:41:46+00:00	7.1%	19.4%	76.2%	38.1%	1.8%
2026-10-05T08:28:13+00:00	7.1%	19.4%	76.2%	38.1%	1.8%
2026-10-05T09:13:29+00:00	7.1%	19.4%	76.2%	38.1%	1.8%
2026-10-05T09:58:35+00:00	7.1%	19.4%	76.2%	38.1%	1.8%
2026-10-05T10:43:41+00:00	7.1%	19.4%	76.2%	38.1%	1.8%
2026-10-05T11:28:48+00:00	7.1%	12.2%	48.2%	38.1%	1.8%
2026-10-05T12:14:15+00:00	7.1%	12.2%	48.2%	38.1%	1.8%
2026-10-05T12:59:26+00:00	7.1%	12.2%	48.2%	38.1%	1.8%
2026-10-05T13:44:43+00:00	0.2%	12.2%	48.2%	38.1%	1.8%
2026-10-05T14:34:08+00:00	0.2%	12.3%	48.2%	38.1%	1.8%
2026-10-05T15:19:21+00:00	0.2%	12.3%	48.2%	38.1%	1.8%
2026-10-05T16:04:35+00:00	0.2%	12.3%	48.2%	38.1%	1.8%
2026-10-05T16:50:27+00:00	0.2%	12.3%	48.2%	38.1%	1.8%
2026-10-05T17:35:34+00:00	0.2%	12.3%	7.6%	38.1%	1.8%
2026-10-05T18:20:41+00:00	0.2%	12.3%	7.6%	38.1%	1.8%
2026-10-05T19:05:48+00:00	0.2%	12.3%	7.6%	38.1%	1.8%
2026-10-05T19:50:54+00:00	17.8%	12.3%	7.6%	38.1%	22.1%
2026-10-05T20:36:04+00:00	17.8%	12.3%	7.6%	38.1%	22.1%
2026-10-05T21:21:20+00:00	17.8%	12.3%	7.6%	38.1%	22.1%
2026-10-05T22:06:29+00:00	17.8%	12.3%	7.6%	38.1%	22.1%
2026-10-05T22:51:35+00:00	17.8%	12.3%	7.6%	38.1%	22.1%
2026-10-05T23:36:41+00:00	17.8%	12.3%	14.0%	38.1%	22.1%
2026-10-06T00:21:49+00:00	17.8%	12.3%	14.0%	38.1%	22.1%
2026-10-06T01:07:02+00:00	17.8%	12.3%	14.0%	38.1%	22.1%
2026-10-06T01:52:08+00:00	3.8%	12.3%	14.0%	38.1%	22.1%
2026-10-06T02:37:18+00:00	3.8%	12.3%	14.0%	38.1%	22.1%
2026-10-06T03:22:26+00:00	3.8%	12.3%	14.0%	38.1%	22.1%
2026-10-06T04:07:40+00:00	3.8%	12.3%	14.0%	38.1%	22.1%
2026-10-06T04:53:29+00:00	3.8%	12.3%	32.9%	38.1%	22.1%
2026-10-06T05:38:45+00:00	3.8%	12.3%	32.9%	38.1%	22.1%
2026-10-06T06:23:51+00:00	3.8%	12.3%	32.9%	38.1%	22.1%
2026-10-06T07:08:57+00:00	3.8%	12.3%	32.9%	38.1%	22.1%
2026-10-06T07:54:03+00:00	3.5%	12.3%	32.9%	38.1%	1.4%
2026-10-06T08:39:12+00:00	3.5%	12.3%	32.9%	38.1%	1.4%
2026-10-06T09:24:20+00:00	3.5%	12.3%	32.9%	38.1%	1.4%
2026-10-06T10:09:27+00:00	3.5%	12.3%	32.9%	38.1%	1.4%
2026-10-06T10:54:34+00:00	3.5%	26.9%	10.4%	38.1%	1.4%
2026-10-06T11:39:41+00:00	3.5%	26.9%	10.4%	38.1%	1.4%
2026-10-06T12:24:47+00:00	3.5%	26.9%	10.4%	38.1%	1.4%
2026-10-06T13:09:54+00:00	3.5%	26.9%	10.4%	38.1%	1.4%
2026-10-06T13:55:01+00:00	8.0%	26.9%	10.3%	38.1%	1.4%
2026-10-06T14:43:37+00:00	8.0%	26.9%	10.3%	38.1%	1.4%
2026-10-06T15:29:11+00:00	8.0%	27.1%	10.3%	38.1%	1.4%
2026-10-06T16:15:01+00:00	8.0%	27.1%	10.3%	38.1%	1.4%
2026-10-06T17:00:10+00:00	8.0%	27.1%	3.3%	38.1%	1.4%
2026-10-06T17:45:20+00:00	8.0%	27.1%	3.3%	38.1%	1.4%
2026-10-06T18:30:28+00:00	8.0%	27.1%	3.3%	38.1%	1.4%
2026-10-06T19:15:35+00:00	8.0%	27.1%	3.3%	38.1%	1.4%
2026-10-06T20:00:52+00:00	10.0%	27.1%	3.3%	7.1%	1.9%
2026-10-06T20:47:27+00:00	10.0%	27.1%	3.3%	7.1%	1.9%
2026-10-06T21:32:36+00:00	10.0%	27.1%	3.3%	7.1%	1.9%
2026-10-06T22:17:46+00:00	10.0%	27.1%	3.3%	7.1%	1.9%
2026-10-06T23:03:02+00:00	10.0%	27.1%	6.2%	7.1%	1.9%
2026-10-06T23:48:32+00:00	10.0%	27.1%	6.2%	7.1%	1.9%
2026-10-07T00:33:48+00:00	10.0%	27.1%	6.2%	7.1%	1.9%
2026-10-07T01:19:05+00:00	10.0%	27.1%	6.2%	7.1%	1.9%
2026-10-07T02:04:24+00:00	10.3%	27.1%	6.2%	7.1%	1.9%
2026-10-07T02:49:35+00:00	10.3%	27.1%	6.2%	7.1%	1.9%
2026-10-07T03:34:42+00:00	10.3%	27.1%	6.2%	7.1%	1.9%
2026-10-07T04:19:56+00:00	10.3%	27.1%	6.2%	7.1%	1.9%
2026-10-07T05:06:53+00:00	10.3%	27.1%	6.2%	7.1%	1.9%
2026-10-07T05:52:07+00:00	10.3%	27.1%	6.2%	7.1%	1.9%
2026-10-07T06:37:40+00:00	10.3%	27.1%	6.2%	7.1%	1.9%
2026-10-07T07:23:08+00:00	7.3%	27.1%	6.2%	1.5%	4.0%
2026-10-07T08:09:22+00:00	7.3%	27.1%	6.2%	1.5%	4.0%
2026-10-07T08:54:44+00:00	7.3%	27.1%	6.2%	1.5%	4.0%
2026-10-07T09:39:52+00:00	7.3%	27.1%	6.2%	1.5%	4.0%
2026-10-07T10:24:58+00:00	7.3%	27.1%	6.2%	1.5%	4.0%
2026-10-07T11:10:28+00:00	7.3%	12.3%	3.5%	1.5%	4.0%
2026-10-07T11:55:58+00:00	7.3%	12.3%	3.5%	1.5%	4.0%
2026-10-07T12:41:05+00:00	7.3%	12.3%	3.5%	1.5%	4.0%
2026-10-07T13:26:11+00:00	9.3%	12.3%	3.5%	1.5%	4.0%
2026-10-07T14:17:31+00:00	9.2%	12.4%	3.5%	1.5%	4.0%
2026-10-07T15:02:38+00:00	9.2%	11.6%	3.5%	1.5%	4.0%
2026-10-07T15:47:45+00:00	9.2%	11.4%	3.5%	1.5%	4.0%
2026-10-07T16:32:58+00:00	9.2%	11.4%	3.5%	1.5%	4.0%
2026-10-07T17:18:45+00:00	9.2%	11.4%	1.5%	1.5%	4.0%
2026-10-07T18:03:53+00:00	9.2%	11.4%	1.5%	1.5%	4.0%
2026-10-07T18:48:59+00:00	9.2%	11.4%	1.5%	1.5%	4.0%
2026-10-07T19:34:07+00:00	5.9%	11.4%	1.5%	0.9%	6.5%
2026-10-07T20:19:19+00:00	5.9%	11.4%	1.5%	0.9%	6.5%
2026-10-07T21:04:27+00:00	5.9%	11.4%	1.5%	0.9%	6.5%
2026-10-07T21:50:00+00:00	5.9%	11.4%	1.5%	0.9%	6.5%
2026-10-07T22:35:06+00:00	5.9%	11.4%	1.5%	0.9%	6.5%
2026-10-07T23:20:13+00:00	5.9%	11.4%	0.7%	0.9%	6.5%
2026-10-08T00:05:28+00:00	5.9%	11.4%	0.7%	0.9%	6.5%
2026-10-08T00:50:46+00:00	5.9%	11.4%	0.7%	0.9%	6.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	11%	71.7°F	4.8°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
National Blend	7%	69.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-07 06:00	Pending
ICON	6%	70.3°F	4.8°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	70.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-07 15:00	Pending
IFS HRES	<1%	65.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	68.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261011-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 04 · 07:29 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗