KPIT / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 08 · 00:50 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

11%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 6.1¢Risks 3.03u

WN2NO 94.0¢Risks 46.98u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +46.98u · WN2 −46.98u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	6.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	14.8%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	—	—	6.9%	27.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	79.5%	—	43.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	67.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	56.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	34.8%	—	—	14.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	35.5%	1.4%	0.7%	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	18.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	31.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.1%	40.6%	6.4%	—	21.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	17.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	5.0%	0.0%	13.4%	—	15.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.1%	2.2%	0.3%	—	16.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.0%	26.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.1%	—	0.1%	—	5.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.1%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	1.6%	0.8%	0.1%	—	0.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.7%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	2.2%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.1%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	1.2%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.3%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	11%	71.7°F	4.8°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
National Blend	7%	69.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-07 06:00	Pending
ICON	6%	70.3°F	4.8°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	70.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-07 15:00	Pending
IFS HRES	<1%	65.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	68.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261011-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 04 · 07:29 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗