KPIT / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Oct 09 · 02:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

98%

88%

86%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 93.0¢Risks 46.52u

EPSNO 7.0¢Risks 3.48u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +3.48u · EPS −3.48u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-09T02:33:33+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-07T16:32:59+00:00	89.8%	72.0%	65.5%	31.9%	62.5%
2026-10-07T17:18:45+00:00	89.8%	72.0%	62.2%	31.9%	62.5%
2026-10-07T18:03:53+00:00	89.8%	72.0%	62.2%	31.9%	62.5%
2026-10-07T18:48:59+00:00	89.8%	72.0%	62.2%	31.9%	62.5%
2026-10-07T19:34:08+00:00	98.6%	72.0%	62.2%	73.8%	70.9%
2026-10-07T20:19:19+00:00	98.6%	72.0%	62.2%	73.8%	70.9%
2026-10-07T21:04:27+00:00	98.6%	72.0%	62.2%	73.8%	70.9%
2026-10-07T21:50:00+00:00	98.6%	72.0%	62.2%	73.8%	70.9%
2026-10-07T22:35:06+00:00	98.6%	72.0%	62.2%	73.8%	70.9%
2026-10-07T23:20:13+00:00	98.6%	72.0%	76.7%	73.8%	70.9%
2026-10-08T00:05:28+00:00	98.6%	72.0%	76.7%	73.8%	70.9%
2026-10-08T00:50:46+00:00	98.6%	72.0%	76.7%	73.8%	70.9%
2026-10-08T01:36:00+00:00	99.3%	72.0%	76.7%	73.8%	70.9%
2026-10-08T02:21:08+00:00	99.3%	72.0%	76.7%	73.8%	70.9%
2026-10-08T15:15:50+00:00	99.8%	86.1%	100.0%	97.6%	52.7%
2026-10-08T16:01:32+00:00	99.8%	86.1%	100.0%	97.6%	52.7%
2026-10-08T16:46:38+00:00	99.8%	86.1%	100.0%	97.7%	52.7%
2026-10-08T17:31:44+00:00	99.8%	86.1%	100.0%	97.7%	52.7%
2026-10-08T18:16:49+00:00	99.8%	86.1%	100.0%	97.7%	52.7%
2026-10-08T19:01:54+00:00	99.8%	86.1%	100.0%	97.7%	52.7%
2026-10-08T19:46:59+00:00	99.6%	86.1%	100.0%	88.1%	98.3%
2026-10-08T20:32:12+00:00	99.6%	86.1%	100.0%	88.1%	98.3%
2026-10-08T21:17:20+00:00	99.6%	86.1%	100.0%	88.1%	98.3%
2026-10-08T22:02:30+00:00	99.6%	86.1%	100.0%	88.1%	98.3%
2026-10-08T22:47:36+00:00	99.6%	86.1%	100.0%	88.1%	98.3%
2026-10-08T23:32:43+00:00	99.6%	86.1%	100.0%	87.7%	98.3%
2026-10-09T00:17:55+00:00	99.6%	86.1%	100.0%	87.7%	98.3%
2026-10-09T01:03:07+00:00	99.6%	86.1%	100.0%	87.7%	98.3%
2026-10-09T01:48:12+00:00	100.0%	86.1%	100.0%	87.7%	98.3%
2026-10-09T02:33:33+00:00	100.0%	86.1%	100.0%	87.7%	98.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	>99%	83.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	>99%	81.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
ICON	98%	79.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	88%	74.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	86%	72.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-08 14:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	68.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-08 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261013-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 07 · 16:32 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗