KPIT / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Oct 09 · 02:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

98%

88%

86%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 93.0¢Risks 46.52u

EPSNO 7.0¢Risks 3.48u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +3.48u · EPS −3.48u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	46.3%	—	—	41.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	54.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	85.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	34.5%	—	—	71.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	14.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	8.1%	—	—	64.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	14.3%	—	—	79.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	37.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	89.9%	—	5.1%	—	—	75.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	73.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	35.4%	—	—	71.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	88.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	94.6%	24.4%	67.0%	—	—	86.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	17.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	99.0%	48.6%	—	36.9%	—	74.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	67.7%	41.3%	33.0%	72.2%	—	44.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	90.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	92.4%	53.0%	59.8%	33.0%	—	58.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	98.8%	33.7%	54.8%	45.2%	—	85.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	98.5%	15.3%	82.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	97.4%	98.0%	97.8%	93.2%	—	86.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	99.7%	95.9%	96.2%	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	99.7%	88.2%	98.8%	98.2%	—	94.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	99.8%	98.6%	99.2%	—	—	94.0%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.5%	97.2%	97.7%	—	96.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.8%	99.4%	—	—	99.2%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.8%	99.6%	99.0%	—	99.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.5%	99.6%	—	—	99.8%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.4%	99.7%	99.7%	—	99.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.7%	99.8%	—	—	99.9%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.6%	99.9%	99.6%	3.5%	99.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.5%	99.9%	1.2%	—	99.9%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.0%	100.0%	99.8%	99.7%	100.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.4%	100.0%	99.8%	—	100.0%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.7%	100.0%	99.9%	1.2%	100.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.8%	100.0%	99.9%	—	100.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	>99%	83.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	>99%	81.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
ICON	98%	79.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	88%	74.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	86%	72.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-08 14:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	68.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-08 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261013-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 07 · 16:32 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗