KPIT / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST96%Oct 09 · 14:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

96%

83%

80%

Consensus

96%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 89.9¢Risks 44.93u

ICONNO 10.1¢Risks 5.07u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +5.07u · ICON −5.07u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-09T14:42:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-07T04:19:56+00:00	94.5%	72.3%	62.0%	88.7%	54.1%
2026-10-07T05:06:54+00:00	94.5%	72.3%	42.8%	88.7%	54.1%
2026-10-07T05:52:07+00:00	94.5%	72.3%	42.8%	88.7%	54.1%
2026-10-07T06:37:40+00:00	94.5%	72.3%	42.8%	88.7%	54.1%
2026-10-07T07:23:08+00:00	74.6%	72.3%	42.8%	17.8%	44.8%
2026-10-07T08:09:22+00:00	74.6%	72.3%	42.8%	17.8%	44.8%
2026-10-07T08:54:44+00:00	74.6%	72.3%	42.8%	17.8%	44.8%
2026-10-07T09:39:52+00:00	74.6%	72.3%	42.8%	17.8%	44.8%
2026-10-07T10:24:58+00:00	74.6%	72.3%	42.8%	17.8%	44.8%
2026-10-07T11:10:28+00:00	74.6%	46.0%	39.6%	17.8%	44.8%
2026-10-07T11:55:58+00:00	74.6%	46.0%	39.6%	17.8%	44.8%
2026-10-07T12:41:05+00:00	74.6%	46.0%	39.6%	17.8%	44.8%
2026-10-07T13:26:11+00:00	75.8%	46.0%	39.6%	17.8%	44.8%
2026-10-07T14:17:31+00:00	75.8%	46.1%	39.5%	17.7%	45.4%
2026-10-07T15:02:38+00:00	75.8%	44.2%	39.5%	17.7%	45.4%
2026-10-07T15:47:45+00:00	75.8%	44.2%	39.5%	17.7%	45.4%
2026-10-09T03:18:49+00:00	99.7%	65.2%	99.7%	73.9%	94.5%
2026-10-09T04:05:04+00:00	99.7%	65.2%	99.7%	73.9%	94.5%
2026-10-09T04:50:12+00:00	99.7%	65.2%	99.7%	73.9%	94.5%
2026-10-09T05:35:18+00:00	99.7%	65.2%	99.8%	73.9%	94.5%
2026-10-09T06:20:26+00:00	99.7%	65.2%	99.8%	73.9%	94.5%
2026-10-09T07:05:32+00:00	99.7%	65.2%	99.8%	73.9%	94.5%
2026-10-09T07:50:45+00:00	99.8%	65.2%	99.8%	95.7%	79.9%
2026-10-09T08:37:12+00:00	99.8%	65.2%	99.8%	95.7%	79.9%
2026-10-09T09:22:17+00:00	99.8%	65.2%	99.8%	95.7%	79.9%
2026-10-09T10:07:23+00:00	99.8%	65.2%	99.8%	95.7%	79.9%
2026-10-09T10:52:29+00:00	99.8%	65.2%	99.8%	95.7%	79.9%
2026-10-09T11:37:36+00:00	99.8%	65.2%	99.8%	95.7%	79.9%
2026-10-09T12:23:10+00:00	99.8%	82.6%	99.8%	95.7%	79.9%
2026-10-09T13:08:25+00:00	99.8%	82.6%	99.8%	95.7%	79.9%
2026-10-09T13:53:30+00:00	99.8%	82.6%	99.8%	95.7%	79.9%
2026-10-09T14:42:07+00:00	99.8%	82.6%	99.8%	95.7%	79.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	>99%	84.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	>99%	82.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	96%	79.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	83%	74.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
ICON	80%	74.5°F	4.8°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	73.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-09 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261013-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 07 · 04:19 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗