KPIT / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST96%Oct 09 · 14:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

96%

83%

80%

Consensus

96%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 89.9¢Risks 44.93u

ICONNO 10.1¢Risks 5.07u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +5.07u · ICON −5.07u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	8.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	31.1%	—	—	26.5%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	38.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	42.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	73.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	20.4%	—	—	55.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	86.1%	—	6.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	3.3%	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	6.4%	—	—	64.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	21.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	78.9%	—	1.7%	—	—	58.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	56.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	19.3%	—	—	52.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	75.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	86.5%	11.4%	47.3%	—	—	72.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	7.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	96.2%	28.6%	—	19.4%	—	54.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	80.1%	—	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	46.4%	22.1%	16.1%	51.5%	—	24.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	80.5%	30.9%	37.2%	15.5%	—	35.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	27.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	95.0%	15.4%	31.6%	23.6%	—	67.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	94.0%	5.1%	62.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	90.6%	92.3%	91.6%	80.5%	—	67.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	98.0%	86.3%	87.2%	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	98.3%	70.1%	94.6%	92.3%	—	82.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	98.6%	93.7%	96.1%	—	—	81.0%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	98.8%	97.1%	89.0%	90.2%	—	87.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	99.1%	98.2%	96.2%	—	—	95.4%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	99.2%	98.1%	97.0%	94.4%	—	98.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	99.1%	96.8%	97.0%	—	—	98.1%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	98.8%	95.8%	97.7%	97.7%	—	98.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	99.6%	97.5%	98.0%	—	—	98.6%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	99.7%	96.5%	98.6%	96.7%	0.4%	99.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	99.7%	96.0%	98.6%	0.1%	—	99.2%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	99.8%	92.8%	99.3%	97.8%	96.9%	99.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	94.8%	99.3%	97.7%	—	99.6%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	96.7%	99.6%	98.2%	0.1%	99.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	97.6%	99.6%	97.8%	—	99.7%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	98.0%	99.9%	98.6%	99.2%	99.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	98.9%	99.8%	98.8%	—	99.9%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.8%	99.8%	99.5%	99.7%	100.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	99.9%	99.4%	—	100.0%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	99.7%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	99.1%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	>99%	84.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	>99%	82.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	96%	79.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	83%	74.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
ICON	80%	74.5°F	4.8°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	73.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-09 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261013-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 07 · 04:19 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗