KPIT / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST97%Oct 10 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

96%

94%

94%

Consensus

97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 97.0¢Risks 24.25u

HRESNO 3.0¢Risks 0.75u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +0.75u · HRES −0.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T14:04:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-09T15:27:17+00:00	99.4%	68.0%	99.2%	90.7%	66.2%
2026-10-09T16:13:13+00:00	99.4%	68.0%	99.2%	90.7%	66.2%
2026-10-09T16:58:25+00:00	99.4%	68.0%	99.8%	90.7%	66.2%
2026-10-09T17:43:32+00:00	99.4%	68.0%	99.8%	90.7%	66.2%
2026-10-09T18:28:38+00:00	99.4%	68.0%	99.8%	90.7%	66.2%
2026-10-09T19:13:43+00:00	99.4%	68.0%	99.8%	90.7%	66.2%
2026-10-09T19:58:50+00:00	99.4%	68.0%	99.8%	94.1%	94.9%
2026-10-09T20:44:01+00:00	99.4%	68.0%	99.8%	94.1%	94.9%
2026-10-09T21:29:10+00:00	99.4%	68.0%	99.8%	94.1%	94.9%
2026-10-09T22:14:36+00:00	99.4%	68.0%	99.8%	94.1%	94.9%
2026-10-09T22:59:41+00:00	99.4%	68.0%	99.8%	94.1%	94.9%
2026-10-09T23:44:48+00:00	99.4%	68.0%	99.8%	94.1%	94.9%
2026-10-10T00:29:59+00:00	99.4%	68.0%	99.8%	94.1%	94.9%
2026-10-10T01:15:14+00:00	99.4%	68.0%	99.8%	94.1%	94.9%
2026-10-10T02:00:41+00:00	99.4%	68.0%	99.8%	94.1%	94.9%
2026-10-10T02:45:58+00:00	99.4%	68.0%	99.8%	94.1%	94.9%
2026-10-10T03:31:21+00:00	99.4%	68.0%	99.8%	94.1%	94.9%
2026-10-10T04:16:36+00:00	99.4%	68.0%	99.8%	94.1%	94.9%
2026-10-10T05:03:03+00:00	99.4%	68.0%	99.9%	94.1%	94.9%
2026-10-10T05:48:13+00:00	99.4%	68.0%	99.9%	94.1%	94.9%
2026-10-10T06:33:20+00:00	99.4%	68.0%	99.9%	94.1%	94.9%
2026-10-10T07:18:25+00:00	99.4%	68.0%	99.9%	94.1%	94.9%
2026-10-10T08:03:30+00:00	99.6%	68.0%	99.9%	94.1%	96.6%
2026-10-10T08:48:39+00:00	99.6%	68.0%	99.9%	94.1%	96.6%
2026-10-10T09:33:44+00:00	99.6%	68.0%	99.9%	94.1%	96.6%
2026-10-10T10:18:54+00:00	99.6%	68.0%	99.9%	94.1%	96.6%
2026-10-10T11:04:03+00:00	99.6%	94.2%	99.9%	94.1%	96.6%
2026-10-10T11:49:13+00:00	99.6%	94.2%	99.9%	94.1%	96.6%
2026-10-10T12:34:19+00:00	99.6%	94.2%	99.9%	94.1%	96.6%
2026-10-10T13:19:24+00:00	99.6%	94.2%	99.9%	94.1%	96.6%
2026-10-10T14:04:42+00:00	99.5%	94.2%	99.9%	94.1%	96.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	84.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-09 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	>99%	83.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
ICON	96%	79.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	94%	76.8°F	2.7°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	94%	80.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	74.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-10 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261013-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 09 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗