KPIT / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST97%Oct 10 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

96%

94%

94%

Consensus

97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 97.0¢Risks 24.25u

HRESNO 3.0¢Risks 0.75u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +0.75u · HRES −0.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	22.4%	—	—	18.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	28.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	13.3%	—	—	44.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	78.7%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	1.7%	—	—	36.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	3.4%	—	—	52.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	13.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	0.8%	—	—	45.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	11.7%	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	64.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	77.7%	6.2%	34.2%	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	79.7%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	92.3%	18.0%	—	11.2%	—	40.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	16.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	12.8%	8.7%	37.1%	—	14.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	63.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	18.9%	23.9%	8.1%	—	22.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	16.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	89.2%	7.8%	18.9%	13.1%	—	51.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	87.4%	2.0%	45.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	81.6%	84.3%	83.2%	67.0%	—	51.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	94.8%	74.7%	76.0%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	95.3%	53.5%	87.8%	83.9%	—	69.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	96.1%	86.0%	90.4%	—	—	66.6%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	96.4%	92.4%	77.7%	79.7%	—	75.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	97.0%	94.7%	90.4%	—	—	88.7%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	97.3%	94.4%	91.8%	86.4%	—	94.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	97.0%	91.2%	91.6%	—	—	94.3%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	96.0%	88.7%	92.9%	92.9%	—	94.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	98.4%	92.4%	93.5%	—	—	95.3%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	98.7%	89.6%	95.0%	90.1%	0.1%	96.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	98.6%	88.2%	95.0%	0.0%	—	96.7%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	98.9%	81.0%	96.9%	92.4%	90.0%	97.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	99.3%	84.8%	96.9%	91.8%	—	98.1%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	99.6%	88.8%	98.0%	92.9%	0.0%	98.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	99.6%	90.8%	97.8%	91.3%	—	98.4%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	91.6%	99.0%	93.5%	95.7%	99.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	94.6%	98.5%	94.2%	—	99.3%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	98.5%	98.2%	96.5%	98.1%	99.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.0%	99.1%	95.9%	—	99.6%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	98.7%	99.6%	97.6%	99.6%	99.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	93.7%	100.0%	99.9%	99.6%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	84.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-09 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	>99%	83.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
ICON	96%	79.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	94%	76.8°F	2.7°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	94%	80.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	74.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-10 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261013-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 09 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗