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KPIT / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST93%Oct 11 · 02:59 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
>99%
AIFS
99%
HRES
91%
EPS
81%
ICON
80%
Consensus
93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 90.1¢Risks 45.05u
VS
ICONNO 9.9¢Risks 4.95u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +4.95u · ICON −4.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 98.3% · 2026-10-10T14:53:45+00:00AIFS Single: 98.3% · 2026-10-10T15:39:25+00:00AIFS Single: 98.3% · 2026-10-10T16:24:36+00:00AIFS Single: 98.3% · 2026-10-10T17:09:43+00:00AIFS Single: 98.3% · 2026-10-10T17:54:52+00:00AIFS Single: 98.3% · 2026-10-10T18:40:19+00:00AIFS Single: 97.6% · 2026-10-10T19:25:31+00:00AIFS Single: 97.6% · 2026-10-10T20:10:40+00:00AIFS Single: 97.6% · 2026-10-10T20:55:54+00:00AIFS Single: 97.6% · 2026-10-10T21:41:27+00:00AIFS Single: 97.6% · 2026-10-10T22:26:41+00:00AIFS Single: 97.6% · 2026-10-10T23:13:29+00:00AIFS Single: 97.6% · 2026-10-10T23:58:37+00:00AIFS Single: 97.6% · 2026-10-11T00:43:43+00:00AIFS Single: 98.8% · 2026-10-11T01:28:58+00:00AIFS Single: 98.8% · 2026-10-11T02:14:10+00:00AIFS Single: 98.8% · 2026-10-11T02:59:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.8% · 2026-10-10T14:53:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-10T15:39:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-10T16:24:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-10T17:09:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-10T17:54:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-10T18:40:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-10T19:25:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-10T20:10:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-10T20:55:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-10T21:41:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-10T22:26:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-10T23:13:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-10T23:58:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-11T00:43:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-11T01:28:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-11T02:14:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-11T02:59:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.5% · 2026-10-10T14:53:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.5% · 2026-10-10T15:39:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.5% · 2026-10-10T16:24:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.3% · 2026-10-10T17:09:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.3% · 2026-10-10T17:54:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.3% · 2026-10-10T18:40:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.3% · 2026-10-10T19:25:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.3% · 2026-10-10T20:10:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.3% · 2026-10-10T20:55:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.3% · 2026-10-10T21:41:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.3% · 2026-10-10T22:26:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-10T23:13:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-10T23:58:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-11T00:43:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-11T01:28:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-11T02:14:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-11T02:59:17+00:00IFS HRES: 87.7% · 2026-10-10T14:53:45+00:00IFS HRES: 87.7% · 2026-10-10T15:39:25+00:00IFS HRES: 87.7% · 2026-10-10T16:24:36+00:00IFS HRES: 87.7% · 2026-10-10T17:09:43+00:00IFS HRES: 87.7% · 2026-10-10T17:54:52+00:00IFS HRES: 87.7% · 2026-10-10T18:40:19+00:00IFS HRES: 87.7% · 2026-10-10T19:25:31+00:00IFS HRES: 87.7% · 2026-10-10T20:10:40+00:00IFS HRES: 87.7% · 2026-10-10T20:55:54+00:00IFS HRES: 87.7% · 2026-10-10T21:41:27+00:00IFS HRES: 90.7% · 2026-10-10T22:26:41+00:00IFS HRES: 90.7% · 2026-10-10T23:13:29+00:00IFS HRES: 90.7% · 2026-10-10T23:58:37+00:00IFS HRES: 90.7% · 2026-10-11T00:43:43+00:00IFS HRES: 90.7% · 2026-10-11T01:28:58+00:00IFS HRES: 90.7% · 2026-10-11T02:14:10+00:00IFS HRES: 90.7% · 2026-10-11T02:59:17+00:00ICON: 90.5% · 2026-10-10T14:53:45+00:00ICON: 90.5% · 2026-10-10T15:39:25+00:00ICON: 90.5% · 2026-10-10T16:24:36+00:00ICON: 90.5% · 2026-10-10T17:09:43+00:00ICON: 90.5% · 2026-10-10T17:54:52+00:00ICON: 90.5% · 2026-10-10T18:40:19+00:00ICON: 80.5% · 2026-10-10T19:25:31+00:00ICON: 80.5% · 2026-10-10T20:10:40+00:00ICON: 80.5% · 2026-10-10T20:55:54+00:00ICON: 80.5% · 2026-10-10T21:41:27+00:00ICON: 80.5% · 2026-10-10T22:26:41+00:00ICON: 80.5% · 2026-10-10T23:13:29+00:00ICON: 80.5% · 2026-10-10T23:58:37+00:00ICON: 80.5% · 2026-10-11T00:43:43+00:00ICON: 80.5% · 2026-10-11T01:28:58+00:00ICON: 80.5% · 2026-10-11T02:14:10+00:00ICON: 80.5% · 2026-10-11T02:59:17+00:0010-10 14:5310-10 20:5510-11 02:59
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-11T02:59:17+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-10T14:53:45+00:0098.3%80.8%99.5%87.7%90.5%
2026-10-10T15:39:25+00:0098.3%80.9%99.5%87.7%90.5%
2026-10-10T16:24:36+00:0098.3%80.9%99.5%87.7%90.5%
2026-10-10T17:09:43+00:0098.3%80.9%99.3%87.7%90.5%
2026-10-10T17:54:52+00:0098.3%80.9%99.3%87.7%90.5%
2026-10-10T18:40:19+00:0098.3%80.9%99.3%87.7%90.5%
2026-10-10T19:25:31+00:0097.6%80.9%99.3%87.7%80.5%
2026-10-10T20:10:40+00:0097.6%80.9%99.3%87.7%80.5%
2026-10-10T20:55:54+00:0097.6%80.9%99.3%87.7%80.5%
2026-10-10T21:41:27+00:0097.6%80.9%99.3%87.7%80.5%
2026-10-10T22:26:41+00:0097.6%80.9%99.3%90.7%80.5%
2026-10-10T23:13:29+00:0097.6%80.9%99.7%90.7%80.5%
2026-10-10T23:58:37+00:0097.6%80.9%99.7%90.7%80.5%
2026-10-11T00:43:43+00:0097.6%80.9%99.7%90.7%80.5%
2026-10-11T01:28:58+00:0098.8%80.9%99.7%90.7%80.5%
2026-10-11T02:14:10+00:0098.8%80.9%99.7%90.7%80.5%
2026-10-11T02:59:17+00:0098.8%80.9%99.7%90.7%80.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2>99%83.7°F3.4°F2026-10-10 12:00Pending
AIFS Single99%84.2°F4.3°F2026-10-10 18:00Pending
IFS HRES91%80.4°F4.5°F2026-10-10 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble81%76.8°F2.6°F2026-10-10 00:00Pending
ICON80%77.9°F4.0°F2026-10-10 12:00Pending
NWS forecast55%75.0°F3.9°F2026-10-10 14:00Pending
National Blend46%74.0°F5.4°F2026-10-10 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261013-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 10 · 14:53 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗