KPIT / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST93%Oct 11 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

99%

91%

81%

80%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 90.1¢Risks 45.05u

ICONNO 9.9¢Risks 4.95u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +4.95u · ICON −4.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	15.2%	—	—	12.3%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	20.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	8.2%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	0.8%	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	1.7%	—	—	40.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	0.3%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	31.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	6.5%	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	51.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	66.4%	3.0%	22.8%	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	85.9%	10.2%	—	5.8%	—	28.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	6.6%	4.2%	24.3%	—	7.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	53.8%	10.3%	13.8%	3.8%	—	12.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	3.4%	10.0%	6.4%	—	35.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	76.9%	0.7%	30.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	68.5%	72.1%	70.7%	50.8%	—	35.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	88.5%	59.3%	61.0%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	89.1%	36.3%	76.6%	70.9%	—	52.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	90.4%	73.6%	80.4%	—	—	49.1%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	91.0%	83.4%	61.8%	64.4%	—	59.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	91.9%	87.3%	79.7%	—	—	76.9%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	92.5%	86.4%	81.7%	72.9%	—	86.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	91.6%	80.3%	81.0%	—	—	86.0%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	89.2%	75.7%	83.0%	83.0%	—	85.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	94.8%	81.7%	83.7%	—	—	87.4%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	95.3%	76.2%	86.3%	77.0%	0.0%	89.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	95.0%	73.3%	85.9%	0.0%	—	89.8%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	95.5%	61.5%	90.0%	80.1%	75.8%	92.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	96.7%	66.4%	89.8%	78.4%	—	93.0%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	97.9%	72.4%	92.5%	80.1%	0.0%	94.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	97.8%	75.2%	91.3%	76.2%	—	93.2%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	98.9%	76.0%	95.0%	80.0%	85.1%	95.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	99.3%	81.8%	92.9%	80.9%	—	96.0%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	99.5%	92.7%	91.6%	86.2%	91.1%	97.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	99.5%	94.0%	94.4%	83.8%	—	97.1%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	99.6%	92.3%	96.6%	88.3%	96.9%	98.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	75.9%	99.6%	98.6%	96.6%	—	99.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	83.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	99%	84.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-10 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	91%	80.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	81%	76.8°F	2.6°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
ICON	80%	77.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-10 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	74.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261013-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 10 · 14:53 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗