KPIT / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

96%

83%

47%

26%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 62.5¢Risks 62.50u

ICONNO 37.5¢Risks 37.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +37.50u · ICON −37.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T14:41:15+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T03:44:33+00:00	94.0%	39.5%	96.7%	74.2%	54.0%
2026-10-11T04:30:38+00:00	94.0%	39.5%	96.7%	74.2%	54.0%
2026-10-11T05:16:01+00:00	94.0%	39.5%	96.2%	74.2%	54.0%
2026-10-11T06:01:14+00:00	94.0%	39.5%	96.2%	74.2%	54.0%
2026-10-11T06:46:23+00:00	94.0%	39.5%	96.2%	74.2%	54.0%
2026-10-11T07:31:36+00:00	94.9%	39.5%	96.2%	80.3%	54.0%
2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00	94.9%	39.5%	96.2%	80.3%	54.0%
2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00	94.9%	39.5%	96.2%	80.3%	54.0%
2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00	94.9%	39.5%	96.2%	80.3%	54.0%
2026-10-11T10:33:31+00:00	94.9%	39.5%	96.2%	80.3%	54.0%
2026-10-11T11:19:41+00:00	94.9%	39.5%	98.3%	80.3%	54.0%
2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00	94.9%	39.5%	98.3%	80.3%	54.0%
2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00	94.9%	39.5%	98.3%	80.3%	54.0%
2026-10-11T13:35:37+00:00	94.4%	39.5%	98.3%	80.3%	54.0%
2026-10-11T14:26:10+00:00	94.4%	39.8%	98.3%	80.3%	54.0%
2026-10-11T15:11:24+00:00	94.4%	39.5%	98.3%	80.3%	54.0%
2026-10-11T15:57:16+00:00	94.4%	39.5%	98.3%	80.3%	54.0%
2026-10-11T16:42:24+00:00	94.4%	39.5%	98.3%	80.3%	54.0%
2026-10-11T17:27:58+00:00	94.4%	39.5%	97.7%	80.3%	54.0%
2026-10-11T18:13:06+00:00	94.4%	39.5%	97.7%	80.3%	54.0%
2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00	94.4%	39.5%	97.7%	80.3%	54.0%
2026-10-11T19:43:28+00:00	94.1%	39.5%	97.7%	79.0%	25.9%
2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00	94.1%	39.5%	97.7%	79.0%	25.9%
2026-10-11T21:13:48+00:00	94.1%	39.5%	97.7%	79.0%	25.9%
2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:00	94.1%	39.5%	97.7%	79.0%	25.9%
2026-10-11T22:44:08+00:00	94.1%	39.5%	97.7%	79.0%	25.9%
2026-10-11T23:29:26+00:00	94.1%	39.5%	98.0%	79.0%	25.9%
2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:00	94.1%	39.5%	98.0%	79.0%	25.9%
2026-10-12T01:00:07+00:00	94.1%	39.5%	98.0%	79.0%	25.9%
2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00	94.9%	39.5%	98.0%	79.0%	25.9%
2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:00	94.9%	39.5%	98.0%	79.0%	25.9%
2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:00	94.9%	39.5%	98.0%	79.0%	25.9%
2026-10-12T04:01:00+00:00	94.9%	39.5%	98.0%	79.0%	25.9%
2026-10-12T04:47:13+00:00	94.9%	39.5%	98.0%	79.0%	25.9%
2026-10-12T05:32:19+00:00	94.9%	39.5%	98.6%	79.0%	25.9%
2026-10-12T06:17:27+00:00	94.9%	39.5%	98.6%	79.0%	25.9%
2026-10-12T07:02:32+00:00	94.9%	39.5%	98.6%	79.0%	25.9%
2026-10-12T07:47:45+00:00	96.1%	39.5%	98.6%	83.3%	25.7%
2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00	96.1%	39.5%	98.6%	83.3%	25.7%
2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00	96.1%	39.5%	98.6%	83.3%	25.7%
2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:00	96.1%	39.5%	98.6%	83.3%	25.7%
2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00	96.1%	39.5%	98.6%	83.3%	25.7%
2026-10-12T11:35:21+00:00	96.1%	39.5%	99.3%	83.3%	25.7%
2026-10-12T12:20:46+00:00	96.1%	47.1%	99.3%	83.3%	25.7%
2026-10-12T13:05:53+00:00	96.1%	47.1%	99.3%	83.3%	25.7%
2026-10-12T13:51:02+00:00	95.6%	47.1%	99.3%	83.3%	25.7%
2026-10-12T14:41:15+00:00	95.6%	47.1%	99.3%	83.3%	25.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	84.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	84.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
National Blend	91%	79.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	83%	81.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	78.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-12 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	77.3°F	2.7°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	26%	75.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261013-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 11 · 03:44 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 78°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗