KPIT / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

96%

83%

47%

26%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 62.5¢Risks 62.50u

ICONNO 37.5¢Risks 37.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +37.50u · ICON −37.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	7.7%	—	—	5.9%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	3.4%	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	0.2%	—	—	13.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	0.5%	—	—	24.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	16.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	2.2%	—	—	14.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	32.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	46.6%	0.8%	10.5%	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	3.6%	—	1.8%	—	13.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	2.0%	1.1%	10.6%	—	2.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	28.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	3.3%	4.8%	0.9%	—	4.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	0.8%	3.0%	1.7%	—	16.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	54.9%	0.1%	13.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	48.3%	46.7%	27.2%	—	15.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	34.2%	35.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	71.6%	15.6%	52.6%	45.6%	—	27.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	73.6%	48.2%	57.1%	—	—	24.2%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	74.1%	60.9%	34.7%	37.3%	—	32.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	75.4%	66.5%	54.7%	—	—	50.9%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	64.3%	56.8%	45.1%	—	64.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	54.0%	55.0%	—	—	62.8%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	67.9%	46.9%	57.2%	57.2%	—	61.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	79.5%	54.2%	57.4%	—	—	63.5%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	80.2%	45.6%	60.8%	46.7%	0.0%	66.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	78.6%	41.0%	59.0%	0.0%	—	66.4%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	79.3%	28.0%	65.9%	48.8%	43.0%	70.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	31.4%	64.1%	45.2%	—	71.7%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	86.3%	36.5%	69.2%	46.3%	0.0%	75.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	85.0%	38.5%	65.1%	39.8%	—	69.8%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	89.9%	38.1%	73.9%	43.3%	51.3%	74.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	91.9%	44.4%	66.2%	43.1%	—	75.8%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	93.2%	64.2%	61.4%	50.0%	60.1%	80.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	92.5%	66.2%	67.5%	44.0%	—	77.6%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	92.9%	59.4%	73.7%	50.0%	75.0%	84.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	29.5%	91.4%	83.0%	71.9%	—	93.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	84.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	84.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
National Blend	91%	79.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	83%	81.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	78.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-12 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	77.3°F	2.7°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	26%	75.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261013-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 11 · 03:44 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 78°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗