KPIT / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 08 · 02:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

52%

43%

39%

25%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 44.5¢Risks 44.45u

HRESNO 55.5¢Risks 55.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +55.55u · HRES −55.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-08T02:21:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-07T11:10:28+00:00	3.1%	43.9%	31.3%	15.7%	24.3%
2026-10-07T11:55:58+00:00	3.1%	43.9%	31.3%	15.7%	24.3%
2026-10-07T12:41:05+00:00	3.1%	43.9%	31.3%	15.7%	24.3%
2026-10-07T13:26:11+00:00	23.7%	43.9%	31.3%	15.7%	24.3%
2026-10-07T14:17:31+00:00	23.7%	43.9%	31.3%	15.7%	24.6%
2026-10-07T15:02:38+00:00	23.7%	42.6%	31.3%	15.7%	24.6%
2026-10-07T15:47:45+00:00	23.7%	42.6%	31.3%	15.7%	24.6%
2026-10-07T16:32:59+00:00	23.7%	42.6%	31.3%	15.7%	24.6%
2026-10-07T17:18:45+00:00	23.7%	42.6%	44.4%	15.7%	24.6%
2026-10-07T18:03:53+00:00	23.7%	42.6%	44.4%	15.7%	24.6%
2026-10-07T18:48:59+00:00	23.7%	42.6%	44.4%	15.7%	24.6%
2026-10-07T19:34:08+00:00	24.2%	42.6%	44.4%	24.9%	39.1%
2026-10-07T20:19:19+00:00	24.2%	42.6%	44.4%	24.9%	39.1%
2026-10-07T21:04:27+00:00	24.2%	42.6%	44.4%	24.9%	39.1%
2026-10-07T21:50:00+00:00	24.2%	42.6%	44.4%	24.9%	39.1%
2026-10-07T22:35:06+00:00	24.2%	42.6%	44.4%	24.9%	39.1%
2026-10-07T23:20:13+00:00	24.2%	42.6%	52.4%	24.9%	39.1%
2026-10-08T00:05:28+00:00	24.2%	42.6%	52.4%	24.9%	39.1%
2026-10-08T00:50:46+00:00	24.2%	42.6%	52.4%	24.9%	39.1%
2026-10-08T01:36:00+00:00	64.0%	42.6%	52.4%	24.9%	39.1%
2026-10-08T02:21:08+00:00	64.0%	42.6%	52.4%	24.9%	39.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	64%	64.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-07 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	52%	62.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	63.0°F	9.8°F	2026-10-07 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	43%	60.9°F	8.6°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
ICON	39%	59.8°F	9.8°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	58.2°F	6.4°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261014-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 07 · 11:10 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 63°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗