KPIT / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 08 · 02:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

52%

43%

39%

25%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 44.5¢Risks 44.45u

HRESNO 55.5¢Risks 55.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +55.55u · HRES −55.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	70.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	82.5%	—	—	68.9%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	87.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	92.0%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	—	—	—	73.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	81.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	72.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	98.5%	—	—	69.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	94.9%	—	—	78.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	30.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	79.8%	—	—	—	—	57.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	3.1%	9.9%	—	—	15.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	35.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	10.9%	24.1%	1.1%	—	31.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	72.2%	9.3%	27.9%	7.6%	—	73.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	44.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	94.4%	96.7%	94.8%	64.9%	—	71.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	—	82.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	99.6%	83.7%	62.5%	92.5%	—	75.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	86.1%	97.5%	78.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	99.5%	98.5%	53.3%	90.3%	—	85.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	98.8%	99.2%	82.2%	—	—	92.2%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	98.8%	99.4%	81.6%	100.0%	—	98.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	98.8%	99.0%	97.6%	—	—	96.9%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	99.6%	98.3%	97.2%	99.2%	—	99.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	98.6%	90.4%	—	—	99.1%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.7%	96.5%	99.9%	—	99.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	98.9%	95.3%	—	—	94.3%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	99.7%	98.7%	99.7%	100.0%	99.4%	99.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.2%	100.0%	—	—	99.9%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	99.6%	98.9%	99.8%	99.0%	—	99.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.2%	100.0%	90.8%	—	99.9%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.5%	100.0%	99.5%	100.0%	99.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.8%	99.9%	98.4%	—	100.0%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.8%	99.6%	99.8%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	99.8%	—	100.0%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	99.9%	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	67.6%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	64%	64.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-07 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	52%	62.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	63.0°F	9.8°F	2026-10-07 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	43%	60.9°F	8.6°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
ICON	39%	59.8°F	9.8°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	58.2°F	6.4°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261014-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 07 · 11:10 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 63°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗