KPIT / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Oct 10 · 07:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

98%

97%

78%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 89.2¢Risks 89.20u

EPSNO 10.8¢Risks 10.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +10.80u · EPS −10.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T07:18:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-09T03:18:49+00:00	97.0%	68.5%	100.0%	36.3%	95.9%
2026-10-09T04:05:04+00:00	97.0%	68.5%	100.0%	36.3%	95.9%
2026-10-09T04:50:12+00:00	97.0%	68.5%	100.0%	36.3%	95.9%
2026-10-09T05:35:18+00:00	97.0%	68.5%	99.9%	36.3%	95.9%
2026-10-09T06:20:26+00:00	97.0%	68.5%	99.9%	36.3%	95.9%
2026-10-09T07:05:32+00:00	97.0%	68.5%	99.9%	36.3%	95.9%
2026-10-09T07:50:45+00:00	100.0%	68.5%	99.9%	96.3%	86.4%
2026-10-09T08:37:12+00:00	100.0%	68.5%	99.9%	96.3%	86.4%
2026-10-09T09:22:17+00:00	100.0%	68.5%	99.9%	96.3%	86.4%
2026-10-09T10:07:23+00:00	100.0%	68.5%	99.9%	96.3%	86.4%
2026-10-09T10:52:29+00:00	100.0%	68.5%	99.9%	96.3%	86.4%
2026-10-09T11:37:36+00:00	100.0%	68.5%	99.9%	96.3%	86.4%
2026-10-09T12:23:10+00:00	100.0%	77.7%	99.9%	96.3%	86.4%
2026-10-09T13:08:25+00:00	100.0%	77.7%	99.9%	96.3%	86.4%
2026-10-09T13:53:30+00:00	96.1%	77.7%	99.9%	96.3%	86.4%
2026-10-09T14:42:07+00:00	96.1%	77.7%	99.9%	96.3%	86.4%
2026-10-10T04:16:36+00:00	99.7%	78.4%	100.0%	96.6%	97.9%
2026-10-10T05:03:03+00:00	99.7%	78.4%	100.0%	96.6%	97.9%
2026-10-10T05:48:13+00:00	99.7%	78.4%	100.0%	96.6%	97.9%
2026-10-10T06:33:20+00:00	99.7%	78.4%	100.0%	96.6%	97.9%
2026-10-10T07:18:25+00:00	99.7%	78.4%	100.0%	96.6%	97.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	78.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-09 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	>99%	77.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-09 18:00	Pending
ICON	98%	75.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	97%	74.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	78%	70.1°F	8.4°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
National Blend	58%	65.0°F	7.3°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-10 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261014-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 09 · 03:18 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 64°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗