KPIT / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Oct 10 · 07:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

98%

97%

78%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 89.2¢Risks 89.20u

EPSNO 10.8¢Risks 10.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +10.80u · EPS −10.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	66.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	78.8%	—	—	64.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	84.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	89.8%	—	—	—	—	70.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	98.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	69.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	83.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	91.0%	—	—	—	—	76.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	15.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	77.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	97.8%	—	—	63.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	49.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	79.4%	—	93.1%	—	—	74.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	46.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	2.1%	7.2%	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	29.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	7.9%	18.9%	0.7%	—	25.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	22.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	65.7%	6.6%	22.1%	5.3%	—	67.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	37.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	91.9%	95.0%	92.4%	57.6%	—	64.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	76.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	99.2%	78.2%	54.8%	89.2%	—	69.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	81.0%	96.1%	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	99.1%	97.5%	45.0%	86.2%	—	80.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	97.9%	98.6%	76.0%	—	—	88.5%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	98.0%	99.0%	75.2%	100.0%	—	97.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	97.9%	98.2%	96.1%	—	—	95.0%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	99.1%	97.1%	95.4%	98.6%	—	98.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	97.6%	85.7%	—	—	98.4%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	99.7%	99.4%	94.1%	99.8%	—	99.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	97.9%	92.4%	—	—	90.8%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	99.3%	97.5%	99.4%	100.0%	98.8%	99.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	98.3%	100.0%	—	—	99.8%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	99.1%	97.9%	99.5%	98.0%	—	99.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	98.4%	99.9%	85.2%	—	99.8%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	98.8%	100.0%	98.9%	100.0%	99.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.5%	99.8%	96.7%	—	99.9%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.6%	99.1%	99.6%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.7%	100.0%	99.4%	—	100.0%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.7%	99.8%	99.6%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	100.0%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	78.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-09 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	>99%	77.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-09 18:00	Pending
ICON	98%	75.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	97%	74.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	78%	70.1°F	8.4°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
National Blend	58%	65.0°F	7.3°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-10 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261014-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 09 · 03:18 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 64°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗