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KPIT / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST92%Oct 10 · 03:31 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
>99%
AIFS
98%
ICON
91%
HRES
87%
EPS
62%
Consensus
92%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 80.7¢Risks 80.70u
VS
EPSNO 19.3¢Risks 19.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +19.30u · EPS −19.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 82.7% · 2026-10-09T15:27:18+00:00AIFS Single: 82.7% · 2026-10-09T16:13:13+00:00AIFS Single: 82.7% · 2026-10-09T16:58:25+00:00AIFS Single: 82.7% · 2026-10-09T17:43:32+00:00AIFS Single: 82.7% · 2026-10-09T18:28:38+00:00AIFS Single: 82.7% · 2026-10-09T19:13:43+00:00AIFS Single: 99.0% · 2026-10-09T19:58:50+00:00AIFS Single: 99.0% · 2026-10-09T20:44:01+00:00AIFS Single: 99.0% · 2026-10-09T21:29:10+00:00AIFS Single: 99.0% · 2026-10-09T22:14:36+00:00AIFS Single: 99.0% · 2026-10-09T22:59:41+00:00AIFS Single: 99.0% · 2026-10-09T23:44:48+00:00AIFS Single: 99.0% · 2026-10-10T00:29:59+00:00AIFS Single: 99.0% · 2026-10-10T01:15:14+00:00AIFS Single: 97.5% · 2026-10-10T02:00:41+00:00AIFS Single: 97.5% · 2026-10-10T02:45:58+00:00AIFS Single: 97.5% · 2026-10-10T03:31:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.2% · 2026-10-09T15:27:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.2% · 2026-10-09T16:13:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.2% · 2026-10-09T16:58:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.2% · 2026-10-09T17:43:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.2% · 2026-10-09T18:28:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.2% · 2026-10-09T19:13:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.2% · 2026-10-09T19:58:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.2% · 2026-10-09T20:44:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.2% · 2026-10-09T21:29:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.2% · 2026-10-09T22:14:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.2% · 2026-10-09T22:59:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.2% · 2026-10-09T23:44:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.2% · 2026-10-10T00:29:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.2% · 2026-10-10T01:15:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.2% · 2026-10-10T02:00:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.2% · 2026-10-10T02:45:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.2% · 2026-10-10T03:31:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.9% · 2026-10-09T15:27:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.9% · 2026-10-09T16:13:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.2% · 2026-10-09T16:58:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.2% · 2026-10-09T17:43:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.2% · 2026-10-09T18:28:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.2% · 2026-10-09T19:13:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.2% · 2026-10-09T19:58:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.2% · 2026-10-09T20:44:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.2% · 2026-10-09T21:29:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.2% · 2026-10-09T22:14:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.2% · 2026-10-09T22:59:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.2% · 2026-10-09T23:44:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.2% · 2026-10-10T00:29:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.2% · 2026-10-10T01:15:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.2% · 2026-10-10T02:00:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.2% · 2026-10-10T02:45:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.2% · 2026-10-10T03:31:21+00:00IFS HRES: 86.3% · 2026-10-09T15:27:18+00:00IFS HRES: 86.3% · 2026-10-09T16:13:13+00:00IFS HRES: 86.3% · 2026-10-09T16:58:25+00:00IFS HRES: 86.3% · 2026-10-09T17:43:32+00:00IFS HRES: 86.3% · 2026-10-09T18:28:38+00:00IFS HRES: 86.3% · 2026-10-09T19:13:43+00:00IFS HRES: 87.0% · 2026-10-09T19:58:50+00:00IFS HRES: 87.0% · 2026-10-09T20:44:01+00:00IFS HRES: 87.0% · 2026-10-09T21:29:10+00:00IFS HRES: 87.0% · 2026-10-09T22:14:36+00:00IFS HRES: 87.0% · 2026-10-09T22:59:41+00:00IFS HRES: 87.0% · 2026-10-09T23:44:48+00:00IFS HRES: 87.0% · 2026-10-10T00:29:59+00:00IFS HRES: 87.0% · 2026-10-10T01:15:14+00:00IFS HRES: 87.0% · 2026-10-10T02:00:41+00:00IFS HRES: 87.0% · 2026-10-10T02:45:58+00:00IFS HRES: 87.0% · 2026-10-10T03:31:21+00:00ICON: 66.0% · 2026-10-09T15:27:18+00:00ICON: 66.0% · 2026-10-09T16:13:13+00:00ICON: 66.0% · 2026-10-09T16:58:25+00:00ICON: 66.0% · 2026-10-09T17:43:32+00:00ICON: 66.0% · 2026-10-09T18:28:38+00:00ICON: 66.0% · 2026-10-09T19:13:43+00:00ICON: 91.2% · 2026-10-09T19:58:50+00:00ICON: 91.2% · 2026-10-09T20:44:01+00:00ICON: 91.2% · 2026-10-09T21:29:10+00:00ICON: 91.2% · 2026-10-09T22:14:36+00:00ICON: 91.2% · 2026-10-09T22:59:41+00:00ICON: 91.2% · 2026-10-09T23:44:48+00:00ICON: 91.2% · 2026-10-10T00:29:59+00:00ICON: 91.2% · 2026-10-10T01:15:14+00:00ICON: 91.2% · 2026-10-10T02:00:41+00:00ICON: 91.2% · 2026-10-10T02:45:58+00:00ICON: 91.2% · 2026-10-10T03:31:21+00:0010-09 15:2710-09 21:2910-10 03:31
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-10T03:31:21+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-09T15:27:18+00:0082.7%62.2%98.9%86.3%66.0%
2026-10-09T16:13:13+00:0082.7%62.2%98.9%86.3%66.0%
2026-10-09T16:58:25+00:0082.7%62.2%99.2%86.3%66.0%
2026-10-09T17:43:32+00:0082.7%62.2%99.2%86.3%66.0%
2026-10-09T18:28:38+00:0082.7%62.2%99.2%86.3%66.0%
2026-10-09T19:13:43+00:0082.7%62.2%99.2%86.3%66.0%
2026-10-09T19:58:50+00:0099.0%62.2%99.2%87.0%91.2%
2026-10-09T20:44:01+00:0099.0%62.2%99.2%87.0%91.2%
2026-10-09T21:29:10+00:0099.0%62.2%99.2%87.0%91.2%
2026-10-09T22:14:36+00:0099.0%62.2%99.2%87.0%91.2%
2026-10-09T22:59:41+00:0099.0%62.2%99.2%87.0%91.2%
2026-10-09T23:44:48+00:0099.0%62.2%99.2%87.0%91.2%
2026-10-10T00:29:59+00:0099.0%62.2%99.2%87.0%91.2%
2026-10-10T01:15:14+00:0099.0%62.2%99.2%87.0%91.2%
2026-10-10T02:00:41+00:0097.5%62.2%99.2%87.0%91.2%
2026-10-10T02:45:58+00:0097.5%62.2%99.2%87.0%91.2%
2026-10-10T03:31:21+00:0097.5%62.2%99.2%87.0%91.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2>99%77.3°F4.0°F2026-10-09 06:00Pending
AIFS Single98%77.1°F4.9°F2026-10-09 18:00Pending
ICON91%75.4°F5.8°F2026-10-09 12:00Pending
IFS HRES87%74.0°F5.8°F2026-10-09 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble62%70.1°F8.4°F2026-10-09 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%68.0°F5.1°F2026-10-09 15:00Pending
National Blend47%67.0°F7.7°F2026-10-09 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261014-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 09 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 68°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗