KPIT / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST92%Oct 10 · 03:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

91%

87%

62%

Consensus

92%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 80.7¢Risks 80.70u

EPSNO 19.3¢Risks 19.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +19.30u · EPS −19.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	45.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	60.5%	—	—	43.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	76.9%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—	47.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	77.9%	—	—	—	—	55.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	78.6%	—	—	—	—	57.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	44.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	91.9%	—	—	39.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	26.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	80.2%	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	9.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	26.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	22.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	1.6%	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	10.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	1.7%	5.6%	0.1%	—	8.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	1.3%	6.6%	0.9%	—	38.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	14.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	73.6%	81.1%	74.9%	28.3%	—	34.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	47.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	94.7%	49.2%	24.8%	67.0%	—	38.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	52.4%	82.7%	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	93.7%	87.1%	16.8%	59.9%	—	50.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	88.1%	90.8%	44.0%	—	—	63.4%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	87.8%	92.3%	42.2%	99.3%	—	87.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	87.0%	88.4%	80.4%	—	—	77.1%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	92.7%	83.4%	77.7%	89.8%	—	90.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	99.2%	84.6%	54.7%	—	—	88.2%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	96.5%	93.5%	72.1%	97.6%	—	93.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	98.2%	84.8%	66.5%	—	—	62.8%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	92.6%	82.4%	93.3%	99.2%	88.7%	96.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	97.5%	85.6%	99.3%	—	—	96.5%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	89.6%	82.4%	93.0%	83.1%	—	92.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	97.4%	84.6%	97.9%	46.6%	—	95.5%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	99.0%	86.0%	99.6%	86.6%	99.1%	95.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	99.4%	91.8%	95.5%	73.7%	—	97.1%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	99.8%	91.5%	86.3%	91.5%	100.0%	98.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	92.8%	97.9%	88.5%	—	99.1%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	92.6%	93.0%	89.9%	99.2%	99.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	98.6%	99.5%	95.7%	—	99.9%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.5%	94.5%	95.6%	99.8%	100.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	98.3%	99.5%	97.3%	—	99.8%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	99.7%	98.4%	98.2%	100.0%	99.7%	99.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	99.6%	98.7%	99.9%	—	99.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	77.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	98%	77.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-09 18:00	Pending
ICON	91%	75.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	87%	74.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	70.1°F	8.4°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-09 15:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	67.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261014-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 09 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 68°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗