KPIT / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST95%Oct 11 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

99%

98%

72%

61%

Consensus

95%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 80.6¢Risks 80.60u

HRESNO 19.4¢Risks 19.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +19.40u · HRES −19.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T14:26:10+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T03:44:33+00:00	99.2%	91.8%	98.8%	80.5%	72.1%
2026-10-11T04:30:38+00:00	99.2%	91.8%	98.8%	80.5%	72.1%
2026-10-11T05:16:01+00:00	99.2%	91.8%	99.9%	80.5%	72.1%
2026-10-11T06:01:14+00:00	99.2%	91.8%	99.9%	80.5%	72.1%
2026-10-11T06:46:23+00:00	99.2%	91.8%	99.9%	80.5%	72.1%
2026-10-11T07:31:36+00:00	97.6%	91.8%	99.9%	61.4%	72.1%
2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00	97.6%	91.8%	99.9%	61.4%	72.1%
2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00	97.6%	91.8%	99.9%	61.4%	72.1%
2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00	97.6%	91.8%	99.9%	61.4%	72.1%
2026-10-11T10:33:31+00:00	97.6%	91.8%	99.9%	61.4%	72.1%
2026-10-11T11:19:41+00:00	97.6%	98.6%	99.8%	61.4%	72.1%
2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00	97.6%	98.6%	99.8%	61.4%	72.1%
2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00	97.6%	98.6%	99.8%	61.4%	72.1%
2026-10-11T13:35:37+00:00	98.5%	98.6%	99.8%	61.4%	72.1%
2026-10-11T14:26:10+00:00	98.5%	98.6%	99.8%	61.4%	72.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	80.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	99%	76.3°F	2.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	98%	79.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
ICON	72%	73.3°F	4.8°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	61%	71.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
National Blend	61%	72.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-11 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261014-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 11 · 03:44 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 71°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗