KPIT / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST95%Oct 11 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

99%

98%

72%

61%

Consensus

95%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 80.6¢Risks 80.60u

HRESNO 19.4¢Risks 19.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +19.40u · HRES −19.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	30.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	44.7%	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	52.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	34.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	87.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	—	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	86.1%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	—	—	—	39.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	74.5%	—	27.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	82.7%	—	—	23.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	13.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	64.7%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.4%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.4%	1.7%	0.0%	—	3.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	0.3%	2.0%	0.2%	—	19.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	62.0%	53.8%	12.5%	—	16.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	25.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	84.6%	26.8%	10.0%	43.6%	—	18.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	62.8%	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	81.6%	69.2%	5.6%	35.3%	—	27.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	70.4%	75.4%	21.4%	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	69.3%	77.9%	19.6%	96.2%	—	68.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	67.4%	69.8%	57.1%	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	77.7%	60.9%	52.8%	71.8%	—	73.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	95.4%	62.1%	27.6%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	85.8%	78.2%	44.2%	89.3%	—	79.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	91.2%	60.9%	37.2%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	56.1%	76.5%	94.8%	67.0%	84.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	87.9%	60.5%	95.0%	—	—	84.4%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	54.4%	74.5%	55.5%	—	73.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	86.5%	56.7%	88.2%	17.5%	—	80.2%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	92.4%	58.1%	96.0%	59.2%	93.2%	78.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	94.8%	68.5%	78.4%	39.3%	—	84.0%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	97.4%	66.9%	56.2%	66.9%	99.4%	87.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	97.8%	68.7%	85.7%	59.0%	—	91.8%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	98.3%	66.9%	68.1%	60.6%	91.6%	91.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	99.2%	87.5%	93.8%	74.7%	—	97.7%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	99.5%	93.2%	69.5%	73.2%	96.8%	99.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	99.5%	83.8%	92.0%	78.7%	—	96.6%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	93.4%	82.9%	81.9%	99.4%	93.9%	96.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	92.1%	84.0%	97.4%	—	94.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	80.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	99%	76.3°F	2.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	98%	79.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
ICON	72%	73.3°F	4.8°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	61%	71.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
National Blend	61%	72.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-11 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261014-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 11 · 03:44 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 71°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗