KPIT / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 14 · 09:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

94%

74%

68%

27%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 63.1¢Risks 63.10u

ICONNO 36.9¢Risks 36.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +36.90u · ICON −36.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:26:37+00:00	82.9%	80.0%	80.7%	28.7%	13.6%
2026-10-12T16:12:54+00:00	82.9%	77.3%	80.7%	28.7%	13.6%
2026-10-12T16:58:01+00:00	82.9%	77.3%	90.1%	28.7%	13.6%
2026-10-12T17:43:11+00:00	82.9%	77.3%	90.1%	28.7%	13.6%
2026-10-12T18:28:18+00:00	82.9%	77.3%	90.1%	28.7%	13.6%
2026-10-12T19:13:24+00:00	82.9%	77.3%	90.1%	28.7%	13.6%
2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00	88.4%	77.3%	90.1%	27.1%	15.5%
2026-10-12T20:43:40+00:00	88.4%	77.3%	90.1%	27.1%	15.5%
2026-10-12T21:28:48+00:00	88.4%	77.3%	90.1%	27.1%	15.5%
2026-10-12T22:13:55+00:00	88.4%	77.3%	90.1%	27.1%	15.5%
2026-10-12T22:59:06+00:00	88.4%	77.3%	93.9%	27.1%	15.5%
2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00	88.4%	77.3%	93.9%	27.1%	15.5%
2026-10-13T00:29:22+00:00	88.4%	77.3%	93.9%	27.1%	15.5%
2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00	88.4%	77.3%	93.9%	27.1%	15.5%
2026-10-13T01:59:45+00:00	90.6%	77.3%	93.9%	27.1%	15.5%
2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00	90.6%	77.3%	93.9%	27.1%	15.5%
2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00	90.6%	77.3%	93.9%	27.1%	15.5%
2026-10-13T04:15:16+00:00	90.6%	77.3%	93.9%	27.1%	15.5%
2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00	90.6%	77.3%	97.7%	27.1%	15.5%
2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00	90.6%	77.3%	97.7%	27.1%	15.5%
2026-10-13T06:32:01+00:00	90.6%	77.3%	97.7%	27.1%	15.5%
2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00	90.6%	77.3%	97.7%	27.1%	15.5%
2026-10-13T08:02:40+00:00	93.7%	77.3%	97.7%	63.6%	14.0%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	93.7%	77.3%	97.7%	63.6%	14.0%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	93.7%	77.3%	97.7%	63.6%	14.0%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	93.7%	77.3%	97.7%	63.6%	14.0%
2026-10-13T11:05:09+00:00	93.7%	76.9%	98.4%	63.6%	14.0%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	93.7%	76.9%	98.4%	63.6%	14.0%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	93.7%	76.9%	98.4%	63.6%	14.0%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	93.7%	76.9%	98.4%	63.6%	14.0%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	93.8%	76.9%	98.5%	63.6%	14.0%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	93.8%	73.8%	98.5%	63.6%	14.0%
2026-10-13T15:41:15+00:00	93.8%	73.8%	98.5%	63.6%	14.0%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	93.8%	73.8%	98.5%	63.6%	14.0%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	93.8%	73.8%	95.7%	63.6%	14.0%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	93.8%	73.8%	95.7%	63.6%	14.0%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	93.8%	73.8%	95.7%	63.6%	14.0%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	94.1%	73.8%	95.7%	63.6%	13.4%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	94.1%	73.8%	95.7%	63.6%	13.4%
2026-10-13T20:57:41+00:00	94.1%	73.8%	95.7%	63.6%	13.4%
2026-10-13T21:42:58+00:00	94.1%	73.8%	95.7%	63.6%	13.4%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	94.1%	73.8%	95.7%	68.5%	13.4%
2026-10-13T23:13:32+00:00	94.1%	73.8%	93.8%	68.5%	13.4%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	94.1%	73.8%	93.8%	68.5%	13.4%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	94.1%	73.8%	93.8%	68.5%	13.4%
2026-10-14T01:29:07+00:00	95.7%	73.8%	93.8%	68.5%	13.4%
2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00	95.7%	73.8%	93.8%	68.5%	13.4%
2026-10-14T02:59:29+00:00	95.7%	73.8%	93.8%	68.5%	13.4%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	95.7%	73.8%	93.8%	68.5%	13.4%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	95.7%	73.8%	93.8%	68.5%	13.4%
2026-10-14T05:15:50+00:00	95.7%	73.8%	93.8%	68.5%	13.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:57+00:00	95.7%	73.8%	93.8%	68.5%	13.4%
2026-10-14T06:46:10+00:00	95.7%	73.8%	93.8%	68.5%	13.4%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	98.9%	73.8%	93.8%	68.5%	27.3%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	98.9%	73.8%	93.8%	68.5%	27.3%
2026-10-14T09:01:43+00:00	98.9%	73.8%	93.8%	68.5%	27.3%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	98.9%	73.8%	93.8%	68.5%	27.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	99%	81.5°F	3.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	94%	79.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	74%	76.3°F	2.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	68%	76.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	75.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	27%	72.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261014-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 75°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗