KPIT / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 14 · 09:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

94%

74%

68%

27%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 63.1¢Risks 63.10u

ICONNO 36.9¢Risks 36.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +36.90u · ICON −36.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	14.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	25.2%	—	—	13.4%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	—	15.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	11.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	63.1%	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	40.1%	—	—	13.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	—	5.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	32.3%	25.1%	2.8%	—	4.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	7.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	7.8%	1.9%	16.9%	—	4.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	31.2%	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	52.5%	36.9%	0.8%	11.2%	—	7.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	37.4%	43.2%	4.9%	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	45.6%	4.1%	81.6%	—	34.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	35.1%	23.5%	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	25.9%	19.6%	36.4%	—	38.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	76.9%	26.1%	6.1%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	53.9%	42.3%	13.1%	60.6%	—	43.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	63.7%	23.4%	9.2%	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	19.0%	37.8%	72.4%	27.6%	50.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	21.3%	72.1%	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	16.2%	33.1%	16.9%	—	32.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	16.8%	52.2%	1.9%	—	38.9%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	60.4%	16.8%	72.0%	17.5%	62.6%	35.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	66.4%	23.4%	33.6%	7.0%	—	41.6%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	75.4%	20.8%	13.7%	20.8%	89.4%	45.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	76.2%	20.9%	41.0%	14.3%	—	53.9%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	78.0%	18.2%	19.1%	14.1%	51.3%	51.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	40.3%	55.6%	23.2%	—	72.4%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	87.0%	51.4%	17.2%	20.2%	65.5%	85.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	84.7%	29.8%	45.5%	23.6%	—	61.9%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	26.3%	25.0%	81.9%	48.4%	60.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	40.2%	25.4%	61.4%	—	46.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	99%	81.5°F	3.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	94%	79.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	74%	76.3°F	2.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	68%	76.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	75.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	27%	72.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261014-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 75°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗