KPIT / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Oct 11 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

90%

73%

70%

45%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 70.8¢Risks 70.75u

HRESNO 29.2¢Risks 29.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +29.25u · HRES −29.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T02:59:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T04:16:36+00:00	50.8%	51.0%	99.3%	42.2%	39.7%
2026-10-10T05:03:03+00:00	50.8%	51.0%	69.5%	42.2%	39.7%
2026-10-10T05:48:13+00:00	50.8%	51.0%	69.5%	42.2%	39.7%
2026-10-10T06:33:20+00:00	50.8%	51.0%	69.5%	42.2%	39.7%
2026-10-10T07:18:25+00:00	50.8%	51.0%	69.5%	42.2%	39.7%
2026-10-10T08:03:30+00:00	69.6%	51.0%	69.5%	42.2%	99.7%
2026-10-10T08:48:39+00:00	69.6%	51.0%	69.5%	42.2%	99.7%
2026-10-10T09:33:44+00:00	69.6%	51.0%	69.5%	42.2%	99.7%
2026-10-10T10:18:54+00:00	69.6%	51.0%	69.5%	42.2%	99.7%
2026-10-10T11:04:03+00:00	69.6%	69.4%	69.5%	42.2%	99.7%
2026-10-10T11:49:13+00:00	69.6%	69.4%	69.5%	42.2%	99.7%
2026-10-10T12:34:19+00:00	69.6%	69.4%	69.5%	42.2%	99.7%
2026-10-10T13:19:24+00:00	69.6%	69.4%	69.5%	42.2%	99.7%
2026-10-10T14:04:42+00:00	77.5%	69.3%	69.4%	42.2%	99.7%
2026-10-10T14:53:45+00:00	77.5%	69.4%	69.4%	42.2%	99.7%
2026-10-10T15:39:25+00:00	77.5%	69.5%	69.4%	42.2%	99.7%
2026-10-10T16:24:36+00:00	77.5%	69.5%	69.4%	42.2%	99.7%
2026-10-10T17:09:43+00:00	77.5%	69.5%	83.3%	42.2%	99.7%
2026-10-10T17:54:52+00:00	77.5%	69.5%	83.3%	42.2%	99.7%
2026-10-10T18:40:19+00:00	77.5%	69.5%	83.3%	42.2%	99.7%
2026-10-10T19:25:31+00:00	84.7%	69.5%	83.3%	42.2%	96.3%
2026-10-10T20:10:40+00:00	84.7%	69.5%	83.3%	42.2%	96.3%
2026-10-10T20:55:54+00:00	84.7%	69.5%	83.3%	42.2%	96.3%
2026-10-10T21:41:27+00:00	84.7%	69.5%	83.3%	42.2%	96.3%
2026-10-10T22:26:41+00:00	84.7%	69.5%	83.3%	45.2%	96.3%
2026-10-10T23:13:29+00:00	84.7%	69.5%	90.1%	45.2%	96.3%
2026-10-10T23:58:37+00:00	84.7%	69.5%	90.1%	45.2%	96.3%
2026-10-11T00:43:43+00:00	84.7%	69.5%	90.1%	45.2%	96.3%
2026-10-11T01:28:58+00:00	73.0%	69.5%	90.1%	45.2%	96.3%
2026-10-11T02:14:10+00:00	73.0%	69.5%	90.1%	45.2%	96.3%
2026-10-11T02:59:18+00:00	73.0%	69.5%	90.1%	45.2%	96.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	96%	76.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	90%	70.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	73%	68.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-10 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	70%	70.4°F	9.6°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	67.0°F	9.1°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-10 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	64.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261015-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 10 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 66°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗