KPIT / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Oct 11 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

90%

73%

70%

45%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 70.8¢Risks 70.75u

HRESNO 29.2¢Risks 29.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +29.25u · HRES −29.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	92.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	90.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	54.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	8.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	46.5%	—	41.8%	—	—	47.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	87.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	34.7%	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	68.8%	0.6%	83.7%	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	89.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.8%	73.1%	98.0%	4.7%	—	75.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	91.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	98.6%	98.8%	12.8%	13.2%	—	58.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	15.5%	9.7%	27.0%	—	55.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	99.7%	3.1%	76.4%	—	67.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	77.5%	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	57.5%	95.1%	62.3%	56.6%	—	73.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	40.7%	82.2%	68.2%	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	47.4%	59.6%	20.8%	77.9%	—	59.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	37.6%	64.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	42.7%	60.9%	77.7%	41.8%	—	81.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	52.8%	40.6%	63.9%	—	—	55.7%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	41.3%	64.3%	49.0%	—	54.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	52.0%	38.2%	58.9%	—	—	58.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	67.0%	89.7%	51.0%	—	60.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	28.8%	30.7%	—	—	58.4%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	46.7%	62.9%	65.9%	70.8%	62.9%	60.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	69.5%	94.3%	1.1%	—	71.4%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	64.8%	79.3%	52.3%	69.0%	63.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	31.4%	88.6%	45.2%	—	72.7%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	65.8%	84.9%	80.9%	89.4%	84.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	51.3%	52.6%	70.9%	73.1%	—	89.7%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	69.3%	93.9%	78.0%	79.0%	85.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	67.5%	95.0%	81.8%	—	71.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	54.3%	41.4%	96.8%	77.8%	58.6%	72.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	41.0%	97.3%	84.7%	—	98.6%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	19.2%	98.5%	91.7%	50.0%	78.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	17.0%	46.7%	95.9%	74.6%	—	69.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	96%	76.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	90%	70.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	73%	68.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-10 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	70%	70.4°F	9.6°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	67.0°F	9.1°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-10 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	64.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261015-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 10 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 66°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗