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KPIT / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 11 · 02:59 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
95%
WN2
89%
EPS
63%
AIFS
60%
HRES
47%
Consensus
74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 71.0¢Risks 70.95u
VS
HRESNO 29.0¢Risks 29.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +29.05u · HRES −29.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 95.8% · 2026-10-10T14:53:45+00:00AIFS Single: 95.8% · 2026-10-10T15:39:25+00:00AIFS Single: 95.8% · 2026-10-10T16:24:36+00:00AIFS Single: 95.8% · 2026-10-10T17:09:43+00:00AIFS Single: 95.8% · 2026-10-10T17:54:52+00:00AIFS Single: 95.8% · 2026-10-10T18:40:19+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-10-10T19:25:31+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-10-10T20:10:40+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-10-10T20:55:54+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-10-10T21:41:27+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-10-10T22:26:41+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-10-10T23:13:29+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-10-10T23:58:37+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-10-11T00:43:43+00:00AIFS Single: 59.7% · 2026-10-11T01:28:58+00:00AIFS Single: 59.7% · 2026-10-11T02:14:10+00:00AIFS Single: 59.7% · 2026-10-11T02:59:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-10-10T14:53:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.7% · 2026-10-10T15:39:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.7% · 2026-10-10T16:24:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.7% · 2026-10-10T17:09:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.7% · 2026-10-10T17:54:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.7% · 2026-10-10T18:40:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.7% · 2026-10-10T19:25:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.7% · 2026-10-10T20:10:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.7% · 2026-10-10T20:55:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.7% · 2026-10-10T21:41:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.7% · 2026-10-10T22:26:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.7% · 2026-10-10T23:13:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.7% · 2026-10-10T23:58:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.7% · 2026-10-11T00:43:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.7% · 2026-10-11T01:28:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.7% · 2026-10-11T02:14:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.7% · 2026-10-11T02:59:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.1% · 2026-10-10T14:53:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.1% · 2026-10-10T15:39:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.1% · 2026-10-10T16:24:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.7% · 2026-10-10T17:09:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.7% · 2026-10-10T17:54:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.7% · 2026-10-10T18:40:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.7% · 2026-10-10T19:25:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.7% · 2026-10-10T20:10:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.7% · 2026-10-10T20:55:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.7% · 2026-10-10T21:41:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.7% · 2026-10-10T22:26:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.2% · 2026-10-10T23:13:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.2% · 2026-10-10T23:58:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.2% · 2026-10-11T00:43:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.2% · 2026-10-11T01:28:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.2% · 2026-10-11T02:14:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.2% · 2026-10-11T02:59:18+00:00IFS HRES: 58.7% · 2026-10-10T14:53:45+00:00IFS HRES: 58.7% · 2026-10-10T15:39:25+00:00IFS HRES: 58.7% · 2026-10-10T16:24:36+00:00IFS HRES: 58.7% · 2026-10-10T17:09:43+00:00IFS HRES: 58.7% · 2026-10-10T17:54:52+00:00IFS HRES: 58.7% · 2026-10-10T18:40:19+00:00IFS HRES: 58.7% · 2026-10-10T19:25:31+00:00IFS HRES: 58.7% · 2026-10-10T20:10:40+00:00IFS HRES: 58.7% · 2026-10-10T20:55:54+00:00IFS HRES: 58.7% · 2026-10-10T21:41:27+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-10T22:26:41+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-10T23:13:29+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-10T23:58:37+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-11T00:43:43+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-11T01:28:58+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-11T02:14:10+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-11T02:59:18+00:00ICON: 99.7% · 2026-10-10T14:53:45+00:00ICON: 99.7% · 2026-10-10T15:39:25+00:00ICON: 99.7% · 2026-10-10T16:24:36+00:00ICON: 99.7% · 2026-10-10T17:09:43+00:00ICON: 99.7% · 2026-10-10T17:54:52+00:00ICON: 99.7% · 2026-10-10T18:40:19+00:00ICON: 94.9% · 2026-10-10T19:25:31+00:00ICON: 94.9% · 2026-10-10T20:10:40+00:00ICON: 94.9% · 2026-10-10T20:55:54+00:00ICON: 94.9% · 2026-10-10T21:41:27+00:00ICON: 94.9% · 2026-10-10T22:26:41+00:00ICON: 94.9% · 2026-10-10T23:13:29+00:00ICON: 94.9% · 2026-10-10T23:58:37+00:00ICON: 94.9% · 2026-10-11T00:43:43+00:00ICON: 94.9% · 2026-10-11T01:28:58+00:00ICON: 94.9% · 2026-10-11T02:14:10+00:00ICON: 94.9% · 2026-10-11T02:59:18+00:0010-10 14:5310-10 20:5510-11 02:59
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-11T02:59:18+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-10T14:53:45+00:0095.8%62.6%79.1%58.7%99.7%
2026-10-10T15:39:25+00:0095.8%62.7%79.1%58.7%99.7%
2026-10-10T16:24:36+00:0095.8%62.7%79.1%58.7%99.7%
2026-10-10T17:09:43+00:0095.8%62.7%71.7%58.7%99.7%
2026-10-10T17:54:52+00:0095.8%62.7%71.7%58.7%99.7%
2026-10-10T18:40:19+00:0095.8%62.7%71.7%58.7%99.7%
2026-10-10T19:25:31+00:0093.0%62.7%71.7%58.7%94.9%
2026-10-10T20:10:40+00:0093.0%62.7%71.7%58.7%94.9%
2026-10-10T20:55:54+00:0093.0%62.7%71.7%58.7%94.9%
2026-10-10T21:41:27+00:0093.0%62.7%71.7%58.7%94.9%
2026-10-10T22:26:41+00:0093.0%62.7%71.7%47.0%94.9%
2026-10-10T23:13:29+00:0093.0%62.7%89.2%47.0%94.9%
2026-10-10T23:58:37+00:0093.0%62.7%89.2%47.0%94.9%
2026-10-11T00:43:43+00:0093.0%62.7%89.2%47.0%94.9%
2026-10-11T01:28:58+00:0059.7%62.7%89.2%47.0%94.9%
2026-10-11T02:14:10+00:0059.7%62.7%89.2%47.0%94.9%
2026-10-11T02:59:18+00:0059.7%62.7%89.2%47.0%94.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON95%74.8°F6.9°F2026-10-10 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 289%69.1°F4.5°F2026-10-10 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble63%66.5°F9.2°F2026-10-10 00:00Pending
AIFS Single60%64.8°F5.3°F2026-10-10 18:00Pending
National Blend57%65.0°F8.8°F2026-10-10 06:00Pending
NWS forecast53%64.0°F5.8°F2026-10-10 14:00Pending
IFS HRES47%63.0°F6.6°F2026-10-10 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261016-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 10 · 14:53 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 64°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗