KPIT / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 11 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

89%

63%

60%

47%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 71.0¢Risks 70.95u

HRESNO 29.0¢Risks 29.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +29.05u · HRES −29.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	62.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	—	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	57.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	44.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	2.7%	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	87.0%	—	—	—	—	47.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	73.7%	—	46.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	92.2%	—	99.2%	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	99.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	99.2%	—	—	86.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	69.1%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	93.0%	98.8%	—	—	63.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	64.2%	—	99.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	78.1%	43.7%	94.9%	9.3%	—	67.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	83.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	76.3%	99.8%	87.2%	37.8%	—	60.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	83.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	77.2%	93.2%	80.0%	14.6%	—	66.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	99.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	83.2%	74.5%	95.3%	24.8%	—	66.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	68.8%	15.3%	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	91.3%	76.2%	25.8%	—	87.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	21.4%	82.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	27.7%	75.9%	94.1%	—	78.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	92.5%	75.8%	—	—	58.9%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	79.7%	53.7%	83.4%	93.4%	—	79.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	84.6%	95.8%	82.9%	—	—	76.9%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	88.4%	96.8%	89.3%	90.6%	—	85.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	92.0%	96.0%	92.4%	—	—	90.8%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	90.6%	96.5%	91.4%	95.3%	—	94.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	90.4%	97.8%	98.8%	—	—	99.0%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	93.8%	99.3%	91.9%	95.8%	—	99.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	94.0%	99.4%	99.8%	95.2%	—	99.9%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	89.5%	99.9%	99.9%	96.5%	99.7%	99.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	91.8%	99.7%	95.7%	97.8%	—	99.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	94.1%	99.7%	97.0%	97.0%	99.3%	99.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	97.2%	99.9%	96.5%	99.9%	—	99.8%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	97.2%	99.8%	97.6%	99.8%	99.8%	99.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	97.0%	99.8%	97.9%	99.3%	—	99.5%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	97.9%	99.9%	98.5%	99.4%	99.6%	99.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	99.3%	99.9%	99.2%	99.6%	—	99.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	27.6%	100.0%	99.8%	99.8%	100.0%	99.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	12.3%	1.7%	15.0%	—	17.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	95%	74.8°F	6.9°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	89%	69.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	63%	66.5°F	9.2°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	60%	64.8°F	5.3°F	2026-10-10 18:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	65.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	64.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-10 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	63.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261016-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 10 · 14:53 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 64°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗