KPIT / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 16 · 12:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

85%

77%

41%

38%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 64.5¢Risks 64.45u

EPSNO 35.5¢Risks 35.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +35.55u · EPS −35.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T12:42:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:33:42+00:00	73.6%	62.3%	91.5%	90.6%	54.5%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	73.6%	62.3%	91.5%	90.6%	54.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	73.6%	62.3%	92.6%	90.6%	54.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:34+00:00	73.6%	62.3%	92.6%	90.6%	54.5%
2026-10-15T18:35:54+00:00	73.6%	62.3%	92.6%	90.6%	54.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:05+00:00	73.6%	62.3%	92.6%	90.6%	54.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	72.8%	62.3%	92.6%	84.6%	53.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	72.8%	62.3%	92.6%	84.6%	53.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	72.8%	62.3%	92.6%	84.6%	53.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	72.8%	62.3%	92.6%	84.6%	53.4%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	72.8%	62.3%	86.4%	84.6%	53.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	72.8%	62.3%	86.4%	84.6%	53.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	72.8%	62.3%	86.4%	84.6%	53.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	70.2%	62.3%	86.4%	84.6%	53.4%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	70.2%	62.3%	86.4%	84.6%	53.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	70.2%	62.3%	86.4%	84.6%	53.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	70.2%	62.3%	86.4%	84.6%	53.4%
2026-10-16T04:23:53+00:00	70.2%	62.3%	86.4%	84.6%	53.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	70.2%	62.3%	86.4%	84.6%	53.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:48+00:00	70.2%	62.3%	86.4%	84.6%	53.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	70.2%	62.3%	86.4%	84.6%	53.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	77.4%	62.3%	86.4%	84.6%	40.9%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	77.4%	62.3%	86.4%	84.6%	40.9%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	77.4%	62.3%	86.4%	84.6%	40.9%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	77.4%	62.3%	86.4%	84.6%	40.9%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00	77.4%	62.3%	86.4%	84.6%	40.9%
2026-10-16T11:12:05+00:00	77.4%	37.8%	91.1%	84.6%	40.9%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	77.4%	37.8%	91.1%	84.6%	40.9%
2026-10-16T12:42:45+00:00	77.4%	37.8%	91.1%	84.6%	40.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	91%	73.9°F	2.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	85%	74.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	77%	72.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	41%	69.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	38%	69.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261016-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 71°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗