KPIT / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 16 · 12:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

85%

77%

41%

38%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 64.5¢Risks 64.45u

EPSNO 35.5¢Risks 35.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +35.55u · EPS −35.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	27.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	0.2%	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	—	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	12.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	62.4%	—	90.2%	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	94.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	89.6%	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	96.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	61.3%	86.1%	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	88.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	8.2%	65.7%	0.5%	—	21.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	28.5%	93.8%	44.2%	5.5%	—	15.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	27.7%	56.1%	30.9%	0.8%	—	17.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	88.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	23.0%	61.0%	1.9%	—	16.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	0.7%	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	45.8%	22.5%	1.7%	—	37.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	1.1%	28.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	1.7%	20.2%	50.9%	—	22.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	44.6%	19.0%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	6.3%	25.9%	45.4%	—	20.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	52.8%	23.8%	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	55.8%	32.1%	34.8%	—	25.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	36.3%	50.0%	37.2%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	31.2%	50.0%	33.0%	44.9%	—	40.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	56.3%	65.5%	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	69.9%	30.1%	42.4%	—	84.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	33.6%	69.5%	81.0%	37.8%	—	85.9%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	21.5%	82.5%	87.3%	40.8%	74.9%	81.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	23.4%	72.7%	34.7%	46.4%	—	71.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	26.6%	70.2%	37.7%	37.7%	59.9%	80.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	83.4%	32.5%	80.9%	—	72.0%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	70.5%	35.6%	68.1%	69.3%	63.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	65.0%	33.8%	50.0%	—	54.2%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	30.5%	69.5%	35.8%	48.5%	54.3%	55.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	42.5%	68.9%	41.0%	48.5%	—	53.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	81.9%	54.7%	56.3%	81.9%	63.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	91%	73.9°F	2.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	85%	74.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	77%	72.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	41%	69.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	38%	69.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261016-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 71°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗