KPIT / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

75%

55%

37%

32%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 55.4¢Risks 55.35u

ICONNO 44.6¢Risks 44.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +44.65u · ICON −44.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:01:47+00:00	44.2%	47.3%	65.1%	76.8%	60.0%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	44.2%	47.3%	65.1%	76.8%	60.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	44.2%	47.3%	69.7%	76.8%	60.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	44.2%	47.3%	69.7%	76.8%	60.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	44.2%	47.3%	69.7%	76.8%	60.0%
2026-10-15T07:48:58+00:00	48.0%	47.3%	69.7%	78.2%	33.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	48.0%	47.3%	69.7%	78.2%	33.5%
2026-10-15T09:21:24+00:00	48.0%	47.3%	69.7%	78.2%	33.5%
2026-10-15T10:07:09+00:00	48.0%	47.3%	69.7%	78.2%	33.5%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	48.0%	47.3%	69.7%	78.2%	33.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:06+00:00	48.0%	47.3%	76.4%	78.2%	33.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	48.0%	36.2%	76.4%	78.2%	33.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:05+00:00	48.0%	36.2%	76.4%	78.2%	33.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:46+00:00	55.0%	36.6%	75.4%	78.2%	32.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	55.0%	36.6%	75.4%	78.2%	32.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	78%	75.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	75%	74.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	55%	73.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	72.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	71.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	32%	70.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261016-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 73°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗