KPIT / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

75%

55%

37%

32%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 55.4¢Risks 55.35u

ICONNO 44.6¢Risks 44.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +44.65u · ICON −44.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	14.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	0.1%	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	—	—	—	7.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	83.6%	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	89.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	82.4%	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	92.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	48.0%	77.2%	—	—	12.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	80.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	4.0%	52.1%	0.2%	—	13.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	88.0%	30.4%	2.5%	—	8.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	40.9%	18.9%	0.3%	—	9.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	79.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	12.7%	45.2%	0.7%	—	8.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	0.2%	8.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	30.0%	12.0%	0.6%	—	23.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.3%	16.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.5%	10.1%	33.8%	—	11.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	27.9%	9.2%	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	2.3%	13.4%	28.2%	—	10.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	34.3%	11.8%	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	36.6%	17.1%	19.0%	—	12.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	30.8%	20.4%	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	30.3%	17.0%	25.9%	—	22.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	13.8%	35.5%	44.7%	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	48.9%	14.3%	23.0%	—	67.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	47.8%	62.2%	19.0%	—	69.5%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	63.7%	71.0%	20.7%	53.5%	61.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	50.0%	16.0%	24.4%	—	48.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.6%	46.3%	17.4%	17.4%	35.4%	58.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	62.7%	13.5%	59.0%	—	47.4%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	44.6%	14.9%	42.0%	43.3%	36.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	37.7%	13.2%	24.2%	—	27.6%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	41.4%	13.8%	22.2%	26.8%	28.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	39.5%	16.2%	21.3%	—	24.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	54.7%	25.0%	26.3%	54.7%	33.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	78%	75.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	75%	74.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	55%	73.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	72.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	71.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	32%	70.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261016-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 73°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗