KPIT / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 48°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST93%Oct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

98%

95%

88%

82%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 90.5¢Risks 45.25u

ICONNO 9.5¢Risks 4.75u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +4.75u · ICON −4.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T14:41:15+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:01:00+00:00	93.7%	98.8%	96.2%	92.0%	81.2%
2026-10-12T04:47:13+00:00	93.7%	98.8%	96.2%	92.0%	81.2%
2026-10-12T05:32:19+00:00	93.7%	98.8%	96.8%	92.0%	81.2%
2026-10-12T06:17:27+00:00	93.7%	98.8%	96.8%	92.0%	81.2%
2026-10-12T07:02:32+00:00	93.7%	98.8%	96.8%	92.0%	81.2%
2026-10-12T07:47:45+00:00	95.3%	98.8%	96.8%	95.4%	82.5%
2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00	95.3%	98.8%	96.8%	95.4%	82.5%
2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00	95.3%	98.8%	96.8%	95.4%	82.5%
2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:00	95.3%	98.8%	96.8%	95.4%	82.5%
2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00	95.3%	98.8%	96.8%	95.4%	82.5%
2026-10-12T11:35:21+00:00	95.3%	98.8%	98.2%	95.4%	82.5%
2026-10-12T12:20:46+00:00	95.3%	98.6%	98.2%	95.4%	82.5%
2026-10-12T13:05:53+00:00	95.3%	98.6%	98.2%	95.4%	82.5%
2026-10-12T13:51:02+00:00	88.2%	98.6%	98.2%	95.4%	82.5%
2026-10-12T14:41:15+00:00	88.1%	98.5%	98.1%	95.4%	82.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	59.5°F	5.5°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	98%	56.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	95%	57.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	88%	53.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
ICON	82%	53.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	65%	50.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	48.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-12 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 48°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261017-TMAX-GE48
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 48°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗