KPIT / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 48°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST93%Oct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

98%

95%

88%

82%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 90.5¢Risks 45.25u

ICONNO 9.5¢Risks 4.75u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +4.75u · ICON −4.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	42.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	97.7%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	95.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	98.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	97.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	—	—	—	98.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	99.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	99.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	98.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	97.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	75.7%	—	—	—	—	94.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	—	—	—	95.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	—	—	—	96.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	99.9%	—	—	97.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	99.7%	—	—	98.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	62.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	98.0%	—	—	97.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	82.4%	—	90.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	97.5%	—	—	98.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	99.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	100.0%	98.5%	—	—	95.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	85.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	88.1%	97.2%	84.7%	—	95.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	96.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	—	89.7%	97.1%	—	91.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	47.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	63.5%	69.7%	50.8%	94.6%	—	87.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	78.9%	—	43.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	71.9%	55.6%	73.2%	—	90.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	77.5%	47.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	64.7%	97.2%	57.5%	88.4%	—	86.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	93.9%	55.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	82.2%	67.0%	64.6%	—	80.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	88.8%	78.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	51.8%	84.5%	90.2%	77.0%	—	78.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	90.8%	93.6%	—	—	86.8%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	63.4%	97.1%	84.7%	92.5%	—	90.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	67.4%	97.2%	84.2%	—	—	94.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	73.2%	99.6%	92.2%	90.6%	—	95.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	73.8%	98.0%	78.0%	—	—	90.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	76.2%	98.6%	73.6%	76.2%	97.2%	90.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	76.9%	99.0%	75.1%	76.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	79.3%	98.7%	85.3%	85.3%	—	84.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	72.7%	99.5%	93.0%	86.8%	—	77.5%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	78.3%	98.7%	95.4%	87.6%	98.3%	78.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	79.1%	99.4%	96.3%	85.0%	—	80.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	99.4%	97.4%	85.9%	97.8%	81.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	83.6%	99.2%	97.5%	86.1%	—	83.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	86.2%	99.1%	98.5%	87.8%	97.1%	84.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	86.4%	81.9%	92.5%	88.8%	—	82.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	90.4%	87.5%	95.2%	91.7%	83.9%	88.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	96.6%	95.9%	94.7%	—	95.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	59.5°F	5.5°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	98%	56.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	95%	57.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	88%	53.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
ICON	82%	53.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	65%	50.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	48.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-12 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 48°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261017-TMAX-GE48
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 48°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗