WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KPIT / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 55°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Oct 11 · 14:26 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
80%
ICON
66%
HRES
62%
WN2
22%
AIFS
14%
Consensus
44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 47.3¢Risks 47.30u
VS
AIFSNO 52.7¢Risks 52.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.70u · AIFS −52.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-10-11T03:44:33+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-10-11T04:30:38+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-10-11T05:16:01+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-10-11T06:01:14+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-10-11T06:46:23+00:00AIFS Single: 16.2% · 2026-10-11T07:31:36+00:00AIFS Single: 16.2% · 2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.2% · 2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00AIFS Single: 16.2% · 2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00AIFS Single: 16.2% · 2026-10-11T10:33:31+00:00AIFS Single: 16.2% · 2026-10-11T11:19:41+00:00AIFS Single: 16.2% · 2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00AIFS Single: 16.2% · 2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-11T13:35:37+00:00AIFS Single: 14.5% · 2026-10-11T14:26:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.3% · 2026-10-11T03:44:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.3% · 2026-10-11T04:30:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.3% · 2026-10-11T05:16:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.3% · 2026-10-11T06:01:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.3% · 2026-10-11T06:46:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.3% · 2026-10-11T07:31:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.3% · 2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.3% · 2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.3% · 2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.3% · 2026-10-11T10:33:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.5% · 2026-10-11T11:19:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.5% · 2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.5% · 2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.5% · 2026-10-11T13:35:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.1% · 2026-10-11T14:26:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.0% · 2026-10-11T03:44:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.0% · 2026-10-11T04:30:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.8% · 2026-10-11T05:16:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.8% · 2026-10-11T06:01:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.8% · 2026-10-11T06:46:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.8% · 2026-10-11T07:31:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.8% · 2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.8% · 2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.8% · 2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.8% · 2026-10-11T10:33:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.0% · 2026-10-11T11:19:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.0% · 2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.0% · 2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.0% · 2026-10-11T13:35:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.0% · 2026-10-11T14:26:11+00:00IFS HRES: 56.9% · 2026-10-11T03:44:33+00:00IFS HRES: 56.9% · 2026-10-11T04:30:38+00:00IFS HRES: 56.9% · 2026-10-11T05:16:01+00:00IFS HRES: 56.9% · 2026-10-11T06:01:14+00:00IFS HRES: 56.9% · 2026-10-11T06:46:23+00:00IFS HRES: 62.0% · 2026-10-11T07:31:36+00:00IFS HRES: 62.0% · 2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00IFS HRES: 62.0% · 2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00IFS HRES: 62.0% · 2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00IFS HRES: 62.0% · 2026-10-11T10:33:31+00:00IFS HRES: 62.0% · 2026-10-11T11:19:41+00:00IFS HRES: 62.0% · 2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00IFS HRES: 62.0% · 2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00IFS HRES: 62.0% · 2026-10-11T13:35:37+00:00IFS HRES: 62.0% · 2026-10-11T14:26:11+00:00ICON: 66.5% · 2026-10-11T03:44:33+00:00ICON: 66.5% · 2026-10-11T04:30:38+00:00ICON: 66.5% · 2026-10-11T05:16:01+00:00ICON: 66.5% · 2026-10-11T06:01:14+00:00ICON: 66.5% · 2026-10-11T06:46:23+00:00ICON: 66.5% · 2026-10-11T07:31:36+00:00ICON: 66.5% · 2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00ICON: 66.5% · 2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00ICON: 66.5% · 2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00ICON: 66.5% · 2026-10-11T10:33:31+00:00ICON: 66.5% · 2026-10-11T11:19:41+00:00ICON: 66.5% · 2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00ICON: 66.5% · 2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00ICON: 66.5% · 2026-10-11T13:35:37+00:00ICON: 66.5% · 2026-10-11T14:26:11+00:0010-11 03:4410-11 09:0310-11 14:26
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-11T14:26:11+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-11T03:44:33+00:0017.5%87.3%54.0%56.9%66.5%
2026-10-11T04:30:38+00:0017.5%87.3%54.0%56.9%66.5%
2026-10-11T05:16:01+00:0017.5%87.3%58.8%56.9%66.5%
2026-10-11T06:01:14+00:0017.5%87.3%58.8%56.9%66.5%
2026-10-11T06:46:23+00:0017.5%87.3%58.8%56.9%66.5%
2026-10-11T07:31:36+00:0016.2%87.3%58.8%62.0%66.5%
2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:0016.2%87.3%58.8%62.0%66.5%
2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:0016.2%87.3%58.8%62.0%66.5%
2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:0016.2%87.3%58.8%62.0%66.5%
2026-10-11T10:33:31+00:0016.2%87.3%58.8%62.0%66.5%
2026-10-11T11:19:41+00:0016.2%80.5%22.0%62.0%66.5%
2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:0016.2%80.5%22.0%62.0%66.5%
2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:0016.2%80.5%22.0%62.0%66.5%
2026-10-11T13:35:37+00:0014.9%80.5%22.0%62.0%66.5%
2026-10-11T14:26:11+00:0014.5%80.1%22.0%62.0%66.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble80%58.9°F5.2°F2026-10-11 00:00Pending
ICON66%58.7°F9.8°F2026-10-10 12:00Pending
IFS HRES62%56.5°F6.6°F2026-10-11 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%55.0°F5.8°F2026-10-11 02:00Pending
National Blend41%53.0°F6.7°F2026-10-11 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 222%51.0°F4.5°F2026-10-11 00:00Pending
AIFS Single14%48.9°F5.3°F2026-10-11 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261017-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 11 · 03:44 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 55°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗