KPIT / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 55°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Oct 11 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

66%

62%

22%

14%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 47.3¢Risks 47.30u

AIFSNO 52.7¢Risks 52.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.70u · AIFS −52.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	88.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	—	—	—	89.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	92.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	88.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	74.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	94.6%	—	—	—	—	78.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	98.6%	—	—	83.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	84.2%	—	98.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	98.1%	—	95.9%	—	—	87.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	82.8%	—	—	80.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	42.4%	—	56.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	79.3%	—	—	82.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	94.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	99.5%	83.7%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	47.9%	74.8%	41.6%	—	67.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	69.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	49.3%	72.8%	—	53.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	20.5%	9.3%	60.6%	—	43.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	6.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	20.6%	10.4%	21.8%	—	46.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	13.9%	25.0%	6.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	13.8%	67.0%	10.1%	39.3%	—	35.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	51.7%	8.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	26.9%	13.6%	12.2%	—	24.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	35.9%	21.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	27.4%	37.3%	19.0%	—	20.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	37.0%	44.3%	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	57.7%	24.7%	39.4%	—	34.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	56.0%	22.6%	—	—	42.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	79.5%	34.9%	31.2%	—	43.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	57.4%	13.8%	—	—	29.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	60.8%	9.9%	11.4%	50.0%	26.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	63.3%	9.7%	10.2%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	57.0%	16.0%	16.0%	—	15.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	67.5%	26.3%	16.0%	—	8.7%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	51.2%	30.9%	15.1%	47.5%	8.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	60.2%	31.4%	10.9%	—	7.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	55.4%	34.3%	10.1%	36.8%	7.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	48.6%	31.2%	8.6%	—	7.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	42.8%	35.8%	8.3%	25.6%	6.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	4.1%	11.2%	7.5%	—	4.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	5.2%	13.4%	8.3%	3.7%	5.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	14.1%	12.3%	9.9%	—	12.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	80%	58.9°F	5.2°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
ICON	66%	58.7°F	9.8°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	56.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	55.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 02:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	53.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	51.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	14%	48.9°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261017-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 11 · 03:44 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 55°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗