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KPIT / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 56°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 11 · 02:59 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
84%
ICON
63%
HRES
51%
WN2
46%
AIFS
13%
Consensus
48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 48.5¢Risks 48.55u
VS
AIFSNO 51.4¢Risks 51.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +51.45u · AIFS −51.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 11.1% · 2026-10-10T22:26:41+00:00AIFS Single: 11.1% · 2026-10-10T23:13:29+00:00AIFS Single: 11.1% · 2026-10-10T23:58:37+00:00AIFS Single: 11.1% · 2026-10-11T00:43:43+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-10-11T01:28:58+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-10-11T02:14:10+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-10-11T02:59:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-10T22:26:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-10T23:13:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-10T23:58:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-11T00:43:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-11T01:28:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-11T02:14:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-11T02:59:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.0% · 2026-10-10T22:26:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.0% · 2026-10-10T23:13:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.0% · 2026-10-10T23:58:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.0% · 2026-10-11T00:43:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.0% · 2026-10-11T01:28:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.0% · 2026-10-11T02:14:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.0% · 2026-10-11T02:59:18+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-10T22:26:41+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-10T23:13:29+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-10T23:58:37+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-11T00:43:43+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-11T01:28:58+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-11T02:14:10+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-11T02:59:18+00:00ICON: 62.7% · 2026-10-10T22:26:41+00:00ICON: 62.7% · 2026-10-10T23:13:29+00:00ICON: 62.7% · 2026-10-10T23:58:37+00:00ICON: 62.7% · 2026-10-11T00:43:43+00:00ICON: 62.7% · 2026-10-11T01:28:58+00:00ICON: 62.7% · 2026-10-11T02:14:10+00:00ICON: 62.7% · 2026-10-11T02:59:18+00:0010-10 22:2610-11 00:4310-11 02:59
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-11T02:59:18+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-10T22:26:41+00:0011.1%83.8%38.0%50.6%62.7%
2026-10-10T23:13:29+00:0011.1%83.8%46.0%50.6%62.7%
2026-10-10T23:58:37+00:0011.1%83.8%46.0%50.6%62.7%
2026-10-11T00:43:43+00:0011.1%83.8%46.0%50.6%62.7%
2026-10-11T01:28:58+00:0013.3%83.8%46.0%50.6%62.7%
2026-10-11T02:14:10+00:0013.3%83.8%46.0%50.6%62.7%
2026-10-11T02:59:18+00:0013.3%83.8%46.0%50.6%62.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble84%61.8°F6.4°F2026-10-10 00:00Pending
ICON63%58.7°F9.8°F2026-10-10 12:00Pending
National Blend52%56.0°F8.8°F2026-10-10 06:00Pending
IFS HRES51%55.6°F6.3°F2026-10-10 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 246%55.0°F4.9°F2026-10-10 12:00Pending
AIFS Single13%49.3°F5.6°F2026-10-10 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 56°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261017-TMAX-GE56
Opened Oct 10 · 22:26 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 56°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗