KPIT / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 56°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 11 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

63%

51%

46%

13%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 48.5¢Risks 48.55u

AIFSNO 51.4¢Risks 51.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +51.45u · AIFS −51.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	10.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	—	—	—	86.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	90.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	73.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	74.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	71.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	98.0%	—	—	79.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	98.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	94.3%	—	—	84.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	78.5%	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	74.3%	—	—	77.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	91.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	99.2%	79.2%	—	—	62.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	37.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	40.9%	68.9%	34.9%	—	60.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	62.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	42.0%	66.3%	—	46.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	6.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	15.5%	6.5%	53.0%	—	35.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	15.4%	7.2%	16.4%	—	39.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	18.9%	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	59.1%	6.9%	31.5%	—	27.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	43.2%	5.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	20.2%	9.4%	8.3%	—	18.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	27.9%	15.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	20.3%	28.9%	13.4%	—	14.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	28.4%	35.2%	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.4%	48.0%	17.7%	30.4%	—	26.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	46.0%	15.8%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	71.5%	25.9%	22.7%	—	34.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	46.8%	8.8%	—	—	21.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	50.0%	5.9%	7.0%	39.2%	18.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	52.2%	5.7%	6.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	45.4%	10.0%	10.0%	—	9.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	56.0%	17.5%	9.7%	—	4.8%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	38.9%	20.8%	8.9%	35.4%	4.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	47.4%	20.9%	6.0%	—	4.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	42.0%	23.0%	5.3%	25.1%	3.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	35.0%	20.1%	4.3%	—	3.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	29.3%	23.4%	4.0%	15.4%	2.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	1.7%	5.6%	3.4%	—	1.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	2.2%	6.6%	3.7%	1.5%	2.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	6.8%	5.8%	4.5%	—	5.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	84%	61.8°F	6.4°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
ICON	63%	58.7°F	9.8°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	56.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	55.6°F	6.3°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	46%	55.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	49.3°F	5.6°F	2026-10-10 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 56°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261017-TMAX-GE56
Opened Oct 10 · 22:26 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 56°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗