KPIT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 55°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Oct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

92%

91%

87%

80%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 88.9¢Risks 44.47u

EPSNO 11.1¢Risks 5.53u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +5.53u · EPS −5.53u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T14:41:15+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:31:36+00:00	40.1%	80.7%	92.9%	94.3%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00	40.1%	80.7%	92.9%	94.3%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00	40.1%	80.7%	92.9%	94.3%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00	40.1%	80.7%	92.9%	94.3%	—
2026-10-11T10:33:31+00:00	40.1%	80.7%	92.9%	94.3%	—
2026-10-11T11:19:41+00:00	40.1%	66.2%	76.7%	94.3%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00	40.1%	66.2%	76.7%	94.3%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00	40.1%	66.2%	76.7%	94.3%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:37+00:00	75.8%	66.2%	76.7%	94.3%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:11+00:00	75.7%	66.2%	76.7%	94.3%	—
2026-10-11T15:11:25+00:00	75.7%	66.9%	76.7%	94.3%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:16+00:00	75.7%	66.9%	76.7%	94.3%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:24+00:00	75.7%	66.9%	76.7%	94.3%	—
2026-10-11T17:27:58+00:00	75.7%	66.9%	76.1%	94.3%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:06+00:00	75.7%	66.9%	76.1%	94.3%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00	75.7%	66.9%	76.1%	94.3%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:28+00:00	95.2%	66.9%	76.1%	94.6%	74.2%
2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00	95.2%	66.9%	76.1%	94.6%	74.2%
2026-10-11T21:13:48+00:00	95.2%	66.9%	76.1%	94.6%	74.2%
2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:00	95.2%	66.9%	76.1%	94.6%	74.2%
2026-10-11T22:44:09+00:00	95.2%	66.9%	76.1%	94.6%	74.2%
2026-10-11T23:29:26+00:00	95.2%	66.9%	95.9%	94.6%	74.2%
2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:00	95.2%	66.9%	95.9%	94.6%	74.2%
2026-10-12T01:00:07+00:00	95.2%	66.9%	95.9%	94.6%	74.2%
2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00	97.2%	66.9%	95.9%	94.6%	74.2%
2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:00	97.2%	66.9%	95.9%	94.6%	74.2%
2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:00	97.2%	66.9%	95.9%	94.6%	74.2%
2026-10-12T04:01:01+00:00	97.2%	66.9%	95.9%	94.6%	74.2%
2026-10-12T04:47:13+00:00	97.2%	66.9%	95.9%	94.6%	74.2%
2026-10-12T05:32:19+00:00	97.2%	66.9%	97.7%	94.6%	74.2%
2026-10-12T06:17:27+00:00	97.2%	66.9%	97.7%	94.6%	74.2%
2026-10-12T07:02:32+00:00	97.2%	66.9%	97.7%	94.6%	74.2%
2026-10-12T07:47:45+00:00	93.7%	66.9%	97.7%	92.0%	87.0%
2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00	93.7%	66.9%	97.7%	92.0%	87.0%
2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00	93.7%	66.9%	97.7%	92.0%	87.0%
2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:00	93.7%	66.9%	97.7%	92.0%	87.0%
2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00	93.7%	66.9%	97.7%	92.0%	87.0%
2026-10-12T11:35:21+00:00	93.7%	66.9%	98.1%	92.0%	87.0%
2026-10-12T12:20:46+00:00	93.7%	80.3%	98.1%	92.0%	87.0%
2026-10-12T13:05:53+00:00	93.7%	80.3%	98.1%	92.0%	87.0%
2026-10-12T13:51:02+00:00	90.7%	80.3%	98.1%	92.0%	87.0%
2026-10-12T14:41:15+00:00	90.6%	79.9%	98.0%	92.0%	87.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	63.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	92%	63.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	91%	61.5°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
ICON	87%	62.4°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	80%	58.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	65%	57.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	55.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261018-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 55°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗