KPIT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 55°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Oct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

92%

91%

87%

80%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 88.9¢Risks 44.47u

EPSNO 11.1¢Risks 5.53u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +5.53u · EPS −5.53u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	88.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.4%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	3.1%	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	21.6%	—	—	75.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	6.0%	—	—	76.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	2.3%	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	85.1%	63.1%	23.0%	19.4%	—	77.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	90.5%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	80.6%	79.0%	70.9%	74.0%	—	80.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	73.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	76.1%	72.4%	69.1%	78.4%	—	79.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	81.6%	—	68.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	85.5%	83.2%	81.6%	—	82.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	76.9%	7.0%	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	77.5%	90.3%	92.6%	83.8%	—	81.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	82.7%	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	70.1%	82.8%	88.7%	67.8%	—	65.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	79.8%	84.5%	88.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	82.8%	67.8%	88.1%	68.6%	—	67.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	84.6%	78.3%	87.3%	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	82.9%	80.3%	83.5%	69.6%	—	75.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	88.6%	78.9%	87.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	84.3%	83.7%	84.3%	72.4%	—	84.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	83.7%	86.2%	77.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	85.7%	72.7%	84.5%	—	77.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	83.9%	70.4%	0.0%	—	85.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	89.5%	84.7%	81.0%	89.0%	—	89.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	91.8%	86.8%	84.0%	90.3%	—	91.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	94.5%	88.8%	88.8%	91.0%	80.9%	92.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	94.7%	88.5%	92.3%	92.3%	—	93.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	94.7%	91.6%	93.9%	87.4%	87.4%	92.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	96.3%	95.3%	96.3%	81.8%	—	94.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	97.3%	97.3%	96.3%	89.2%	92.7%	96.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	93.5%	97.3%	96.8%	89.5%	—	94.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	95.2%	96.6%	97.4%	83.9%	91.1%	93.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	99.2%	98.6%	94.7%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	63.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	92%	63.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	91%	61.5°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
ICON	87%	62.4°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	80%	58.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	65%	57.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	55.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261018-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 55°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗