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KPIT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
75%
AIFS
72%
HRES
46%
ICON
39%
EPS
21%
Consensus
56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 47.9¢Risks 47.90u
VS
EPSNO 52.1¢Risks 52.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +52.10u · EPS −52.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 67.6% · 2026-10-14T15:12:01+00:00AIFS Single: 67.6% · 2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00AIFS Single: 67.6% · 2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00AIFS Single: 67.6% · 2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00AIFS Single: 67.6% · 2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00AIFS Single: 67.6% · 2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00AIFS Single: 70.7% · 2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00AIFS Single: 70.7% · 2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00AIFS Single: 70.7% · 2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00AIFS Single: 70.7% · 2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00AIFS Single: 70.7% · 2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00AIFS Single: 70.7% · 2026-10-14T23:29:22+00:00AIFS Single: 70.7% · 2026-10-15T00:14:38+00:00AIFS Single: 70.7% · 2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00AIFS Single: 72.1% · 2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:00AIFS Single: 72.1% · 2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:00AIFS Single: 72.1% · 2026-10-15T03:16:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.9% · 2026-10-14T15:12:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.9% · 2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.9% · 2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.9% · 2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.9% · 2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.9% · 2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.9% · 2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.9% · 2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.9% · 2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.9% · 2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.9% · 2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.9% · 2026-10-14T23:29:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.9% · 2026-10-15T00:14:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.9% · 2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.9% · 2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.9% · 2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.9% · 2026-10-15T03:16:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.8% · 2026-10-14T15:12:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.8% · 2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.8% · 2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-14T23:29:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-15T00:14:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-15T03:16:35+00:00IFS HRES: 43.6% · 2026-10-14T15:12:01+00:00IFS HRES: 43.6% · 2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00IFS HRES: 43.6% · 2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00IFS HRES: 43.6% · 2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00IFS HRES: 43.6% · 2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00IFS HRES: 43.6% · 2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00IFS HRES: 46.0% · 2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00IFS HRES: 46.0% · 2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00IFS HRES: 46.0% · 2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00IFS HRES: 46.0% · 2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00IFS HRES: 46.0% · 2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00IFS HRES: 46.0% · 2026-10-14T23:29:22+00:00IFS HRES: 46.0% · 2026-10-15T00:14:38+00:00IFS HRES: 46.0% · 2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00IFS HRES: 46.0% · 2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:00IFS HRES: 46.0% · 2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:00IFS HRES: 46.0% · 2026-10-15T03:16:35+00:00ICON: 58.2% · 2026-10-14T15:12:01+00:00ICON: 58.2% · 2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00ICON: 58.2% · 2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00ICON: 58.2% · 2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00ICON: 58.2% · 2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00ICON: 58.2% · 2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00ICON: 39.4% · 2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00ICON: 39.4% · 2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00ICON: 39.4% · 2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00ICON: 39.4% · 2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00ICON: 39.4% · 2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00ICON: 39.4% · 2026-10-14T23:29:22+00:00ICON: 39.4% · 2026-10-15T00:14:38+00:00ICON: 39.4% · 2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00ICON: 39.4% · 2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:00ICON: 39.4% · 2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:00ICON: 39.4% · 2026-10-15T03:16:35+00:0010-14 15:1210-14 21:1310-15 03:16
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T03:16:35+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-14T15:12:01+00:0067.6%20.9%75.8%43.6%58.2%
2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:0067.6%20.9%75.8%43.6%58.2%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:0067.6%20.9%75.8%43.6%58.2%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:0067.6%20.9%74.9%43.6%58.2%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:0067.6%20.9%74.9%43.6%58.2%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:0067.6%20.9%74.9%43.6%58.2%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:0070.7%20.9%74.9%46.0%39.4%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:0070.7%20.9%74.9%46.0%39.4%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:0070.7%20.9%74.9%46.0%39.4%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:0070.7%20.9%74.9%46.0%39.4%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:0070.7%20.9%74.9%46.0%39.4%
2026-10-14T23:29:22+00:0070.7%20.9%74.9%46.0%39.4%
2026-10-15T00:14:38+00:0070.7%20.9%74.9%46.0%39.4%
2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:0070.7%20.9%74.9%46.0%39.4%
2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:0072.1%20.9%74.9%46.0%39.4%
2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:0072.1%20.9%74.9%46.0%39.4%
2026-10-15T03:16:35+00:0072.1%20.9%74.9%46.0%39.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 275%62.0°F3.7°F2026-10-14 12:00Pending
AIFS Single72%62.2°F4.6°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
National Blend70%61.0°F2.8°F2026-10-14 06:00Pending
NWS forecast55%60.0°F4.5°F2026-10-14 14:00Pending
IFS HRES46%59.0°F5.0°F2026-10-14 12:00Pending
ICON39%58.2°F4.8°F2026-10-14 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble21%56.5°F3.7°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261018-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 60°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗