KPIT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

72%

46%

39%

21%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 47.9¢Risks 47.90u

EPSNO 52.1¢Risks 52.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +52.10u · EPS −52.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	84.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	—	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	—	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	37.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	0.4%	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	5.8%	—	—	45.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	0.9%	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	0.2%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	56.3%	29.2%	5.2%	4.0%	—	45.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	27.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	45.6%	35.7%	39.2%	—	47.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	37.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	40.2%	35.8%	32.3%	43.2%	—	44.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	52.4%	48.4%	46.0%	—	47.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.7%	0.6%	61.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	59.9%	65.5%	47.5%	—	44.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	44.9%	60.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	28.4%	43.9%	54.4%	26.2%	—	24.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	45.5%	52.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	41.8%	24.4%	50.9%	25.1%	—	23.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	43.4%	34.3%	48.1%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	39.4%	35.7%	40.4%	24.0%	—	29.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	48.0%	32.6%	46.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	37.8%	38.8%	24.3%	—	39.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	36.5%	40.6%	27.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	36.1%	38.2%	22.1%	36.1%	—	27.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	42.2%	33.6%	19.0%	0.0%	—	35.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	41.9%	33.1%	28.0%	40.8%	—	41.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	34.7%	30.4%	41.6%	—	45.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	51.2%	36.5%	36.5%	41.3%	24.6%	45.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	33.7%	42.3%	42.3%	—	44.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	38.1%	44.6%	29.5%	29.5%	40.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	47.2%	51.4%	20.1%	—	44.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	54.3%	54.3%	48.5%	28.0%	35.8%	47.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	51.5%	48.5%	26.0%	—	36.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	37.6%	43.7%	48.4%	16.1%	26.3%	31.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	63.0%	54.9%	32.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	75%	62.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	62.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
National Blend	70%	61.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	60.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	59.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
ICON	39%	58.2°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	21%	56.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261018-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 60°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗