KPIT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST93%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

96%

89%

86%

72%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 85.9¢Risks 85.85u

ICONNO 14.1¢Risks 14.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +14.15u · ICON −14.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:33:43+00:00	96.3%	57.1%	98.2%	77.0%	78.9%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	96.3%	57.1%	98.2%	77.0%	78.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	96.3%	57.1%	98.9%	77.0%	78.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:34+00:00	96.3%	57.1%	98.9%	77.0%	78.9%
2026-10-15T18:35:54+00:00	96.3%	57.1%	98.9%	77.0%	78.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	96.3%	57.1%	98.9%	77.0%	78.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	91.8%	57.1%	98.9%	77.6%	79.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	91.8%	57.1%	98.9%	77.6%	79.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	91.8%	57.1%	98.9%	77.6%	79.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	91.8%	57.1%	98.9%	77.6%	79.5%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	91.8%	57.1%	98.2%	77.6%	79.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	91.8%	57.1%	98.2%	77.6%	79.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	91.8%	57.1%	98.2%	77.6%	79.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	93.1%	57.1%	98.2%	77.6%	79.5%
2026-10-16T02:07:57+00:00	93.1%	57.1%	98.2%	77.6%	79.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	93.1%	57.1%	98.2%	77.6%	79.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	93.1%	57.1%	98.2%	77.6%	79.5%
2026-10-17T04:41:00+00:00	96.0%	63.5%	99.0%	87.8%	82.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:17+00:00	96.0%	63.5%	99.0%	87.8%	82.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	96.0%	63.5%	99.2%	87.8%	82.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	96.0%	63.5%	99.2%	87.8%	82.4%
2026-10-17T07:43:59+00:00	96.5%	63.5%	99.2%	89.3%	72.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	96.5%	63.5%	99.2%	89.3%	72.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:24+00:00	96.5%	63.5%	99.2%	89.3%	72.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	96.5%	63.5%	99.2%	89.3%	72.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	96.5%	63.5%	99.2%	89.3%	72.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	96.5%	86.2%	99.4%	89.3%	72.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	96.5%	86.2%	99.4%	89.3%	72.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	96.5%	86.2%	99.4%	89.3%	72.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:47+00:00	96.2%	86.2%	99.4%	89.3%	72.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	96.2%	85.8%	99.4%	89.3%	72.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	69.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	68.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	89%	66.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	88%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	86%	64.5°F	2.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	72%	63.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261019-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗