KPIT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST93%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

96%

89%

86%

72%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 85.9¢Risks 85.85u

ICONNO 14.1¢Risks 14.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +14.15u · ICON −14.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	42.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	55.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	—	—	—	69.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	64.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	64.4%	—	12.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	29.5%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	56.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	2.5%	68.2%	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	54.9%	36.9%	60.4%	2.4%	—	65.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	66.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	60.1%	44.2%	47.8%	69.6%	—	69.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	71.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	67.7%	60.6%	67.0%	66.3%	—	69.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	78.2%	69.2%	64.8%	39.0%	—	60.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	77.5%	0.2%	71.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	79.9%	64.7%	68.5%	26.5%	—	45.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	82.2%	54.3%	62.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	68.6%	55.2%	42.2%	—	60.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	87.0%	75.8%	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	77.0%	70.3%	60.9%	60.9%	—	69.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	80.4%	76.9%	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	75.3%	66.1%	51.0%	64.3%	—	60.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	70.9%	49.0%	—	—	68.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	84.3%	78.1%	53.1%	61.2%	—	79.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	87.9%	78.0%	60.5%	—	—	81.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	88.1%	74.5%	62.9%	55.5%	0.0%	82.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	87.7%	76.9%	70.4%	0.0%	—	82.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	87.3%	76.7%	73.0%	53.5%	51.2%	81.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	74.7%	73.7%	53.6%	—	81.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	88.8%	81.8%	79.2%	50.0%	0.0%	83.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	75.2%	78.1%	52.6%	—	80.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	87.4%	68.1%	79.0%	48.7%	48.7%	80.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	89.6%	75.8%	81.8%	44.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	91.1%	81.8%	86.2%	51.4%	65.5%	86.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	83.8%	87.2%	41.0%	—	77.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	89.0%	77.4%	88.3%	40.6%	72.4%	85.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	88.5%	94.7%	71.9%	—	94.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	69.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	68.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	89%	66.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	88%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	86%	64.5°F	2.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	72%	63.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261019-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗