KPIT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 13 · 10:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

22%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 11.1¢Risks 11.05u

EPSNO 88.9¢Risks 88.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +88.95u · EPS −88.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:47:46+00:00	4.8%	0.7%	14.6%	12.2%	2.1%
2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00	4.8%	0.7%	14.6%	12.2%	2.1%
2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00	4.8%	0.7%	14.6%	12.2%	2.1%
2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:00	4.8%	0.7%	14.6%	12.2%	2.1%
2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00	4.8%	0.7%	14.6%	12.2%	2.1%
2026-10-12T14:41:15+00:00	6.1%	0.6%	12.6%	12.2%	2.1%
2026-10-12T15:26:39+00:00	6.1%	0.6%	12.6%	12.2%	2.1%
2026-10-12T16:12:54+00:00	6.1%	0.5%	12.6%	12.2%	2.1%
2026-10-12T16:58:01+00:00	6.1%	0.5%	14.3%	12.2%	2.1%
2026-10-12T17:43:11+00:00	6.1%	0.5%	14.3%	12.2%	2.1%
2026-10-12T18:28:18+00:00	6.1%	0.5%	14.3%	12.2%	2.1%
2026-10-12T19:13:24+00:00	6.1%	0.5%	14.3%	12.2%	2.1%
2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00	6.1%	0.5%	14.3%	13.5%	14.7%
2026-10-12T20:43:40+00:00	6.1%	0.5%	14.3%	13.5%	14.7%
2026-10-12T21:28:48+00:00	6.1%	0.5%	14.3%	13.5%	14.7%
2026-10-12T22:13:55+00:00	6.1%	0.5%	14.3%	13.5%	14.7%
2026-10-12T22:59:06+00:00	6.1%	0.5%	17.7%	13.5%	14.7%
2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00	6.1%	0.5%	17.7%	13.5%	14.7%
2026-10-13T00:29:22+00:00	6.1%	0.5%	17.7%	13.5%	14.7%
2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00	6.1%	0.5%	17.7%	13.5%	14.7%
2026-10-13T01:59:45+00:00	9.1%	0.5%	17.7%	13.5%	14.7%
2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00	9.1%	0.5%	17.7%	13.5%	14.7%
2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00	9.1%	0.5%	17.7%	13.5%	14.7%
2026-10-13T04:15:19+00:00	9.1%	0.5%	17.7%	13.5%	14.7%
2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00	9.1%	0.5%	21.6%	13.5%	14.7%
2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00	9.1%	0.5%	21.6%	13.5%	14.7%
2026-10-13T06:32:01+00:00	9.1%	0.5%	21.6%	13.5%	14.7%
2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00	9.1%	0.5%	21.6%	13.5%	14.7%
2026-10-13T08:02:41+00:00	6.6%	0.5%	21.6%	11.1%	7.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	6.6%	0.5%	21.6%	11.1%	7.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	6.6%	0.5%	21.6%	11.1%	7.1%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	6.6%	0.5%	21.6%	11.1%	7.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	22%	70.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	11%	66.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	7%	64.2°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	7%	66.5°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	4%	64.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	63.7°F	4.2°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	65.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261019-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗