KPIT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 20 · 04:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

96%

81%

58%

51%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 74.5¢Risks 74.50u

ICONNO 25.5¢Risks 25.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +25.50u · ICON −25.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T04:03:56+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T02:59:30+00:00	89.7%	66.6%	96.6%	75.1%	73.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	89.7%	66.6%	96.6%	75.1%	73.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	89.7%	66.6%	96.6%	75.1%	73.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	89.7%	66.6%	96.6%	75.1%	73.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:57+00:00	89.7%	66.6%	96.6%	75.1%	73.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:10+00:00	89.7%	66.6%	96.6%	75.1%	73.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	92.4%	66.6%	96.6%	75.1%	83.6%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	92.4%	66.6%	96.6%	75.1%	83.6%
2026-10-14T09:01:43+00:00	92.4%	66.6%	96.6%	75.1%	83.6%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	92.4%	66.6%	96.6%	75.1%	83.6%
2026-10-14T10:32:11+00:00	92.4%	66.6%	96.6%	72.9%	83.6%
2026-10-14T11:20:33+00:00	92.4%	47.1%	96.8%	72.9%	83.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	92.4%	47.1%	96.8%	72.9%	83.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	92.4%	47.1%	96.8%	72.9%	83.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	90.7%	47.1%	96.8%	72.9%	83.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	90.6%	47.2%	96.6%	72.8%	83.6%
2026-10-15T04:01:48+00:00	92.9%	47.1%	94.6%	52.4%	84.9%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	92.9%	47.1%	94.6%	52.4%	84.9%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	92.9%	47.1%	95.3%	52.4%	84.9%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	92.9%	47.1%	95.3%	52.4%	84.9%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	92.9%	47.1%	95.3%	52.4%	84.9%
2026-10-15T07:48:58+00:00	95.1%	47.1%	95.3%	69.8%	81.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	95.1%	47.1%	95.3%	69.8%	81.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:24+00:00	95.1%	47.1%	95.3%	69.8%	81.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:09+00:00	95.1%	47.1%	95.3%	69.8%	81.8%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	95.1%	47.1%	95.3%	69.8%	81.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:06+00:00	95.1%	47.1%	97.3%	69.8%	81.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	95.1%	61.6%	97.3%	69.8%	81.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:06+00:00	95.1%	61.6%	97.3%	69.8%	81.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00	93.7%	61.6%	97.3%	69.8%	82.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	93.7%	61.6%	97.3%	69.8%	82.1%
2026-10-15T15:33:43+00:00	93.7%	65.8%	97.3%	69.8%	82.1%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	93.7%	65.8%	97.3%	69.8%	82.1%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	93.7%	65.8%	98.0%	69.8%	82.1%
2026-10-15T17:50:34+00:00	93.7%	65.8%	98.0%	69.8%	82.1%
2026-10-15T18:35:54+00:00	93.7%	65.8%	98.0%	69.8%	82.1%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	93.7%	65.8%	98.0%	69.8%	82.1%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	95.4%	65.8%	98.0%	84.2%	85.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	95.4%	65.8%	98.0%	84.2%	85.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	95.4%	65.8%	98.0%	84.2%	85.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	95.4%	65.8%	98.0%	84.2%	85.0%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	95.4%	65.8%	97.7%	84.2%	85.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	95.5%	65.8%	97.7%	84.2%	85.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	95.5%	65.8%	97.7%	84.2%	85.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	96.0%	65.8%	97.7%	84.2%	85.0%
2026-10-16T02:07:57+00:00	96.0%	65.8%	97.7%	84.2%	85.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	96.0%	65.8%	97.7%	84.2%	85.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	96.0%	65.8%	97.7%	84.2%	85.0%
2026-10-19T04:30:21+00:00	93.4%	59.5%	98.8%	69.6%	58.9%
2026-10-19T05:16:55+00:00	93.4%	59.5%	98.9%	69.6%	58.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	93.4%	59.5%	98.9%	69.6%	58.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	93.4%	59.5%	98.9%	69.6%	58.9%
2026-10-19T07:32:37+00:00	93.6%	59.5%	98.9%	78.3%	64.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	93.6%	59.5%	98.9%	78.3%	64.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	93.6%	59.5%	98.9%	78.3%	64.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	93.6%	59.5%	98.9%	78.3%	64.3%
2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00	93.6%	59.5%	98.9%	78.3%	64.3%
2026-10-19T11:20:38+00:00	93.6%	65.1%	98.5%	78.3%	64.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:27+00:00	93.6%	65.1%	98.5%	78.3%	64.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	93.6%	65.1%	98.5%	78.3%	64.3%
2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00	93.3%	65.1%	98.5%	78.3%	64.3%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00	93.3%	65.1%	98.5%	78.3%	65.4%
2026-10-19T15:13:15+00:00	93.3%	57.8%	98.5%	78.3%	65.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00	93.3%	57.8%	98.5%	78.3%	65.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	93.3%	57.8%	98.5%	78.3%	65.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	93.3%	57.8%	98.0%	78.3%	65.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	93.3%	57.8%	98.0%	78.3%	65.4%
2026-10-19T18:59:49+00:00	93.3%	57.8%	98.0%	78.3%	65.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	93.3%	57.8%	98.0%	80.6%	51.1%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	93.3%	57.8%	98.0%	80.6%	51.1%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00	93.3%	57.8%	98.0%	80.6%	51.1%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00	93.3%	57.8%	98.0%	80.6%	51.1%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00	93.3%	57.8%	98.0%	80.6%	51.1%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	93.3%	57.8%	97.9%	80.6%	51.1%
2026-10-20T00:16:41+00:00	93.3%	57.8%	97.9%	80.6%	51.1%
2026-10-20T01:02:33+00:00	93.3%	57.8%	97.9%	80.6%	51.1%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	95.8%	57.8%	97.9%	80.6%	51.1%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	95.8%	57.8%	97.9%	80.6%	51.1%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	95.8%	57.8%	97.9%	80.6%	51.1%
2026-10-20T04:03:56+00:00	95.8%	57.8%	97.9%	80.6%	51.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	69.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	70.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	81%	66.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	58%	64.1°F	3.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	51%	63.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261020-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 64°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗