KPIT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 20 · 04:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

96%

81%

58%

51%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 74.5¢Risks 74.50u

ICONNO 25.5¢Risks 25.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +25.50u · ICON −25.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	77.5%	—	—	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	64.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	30.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	59.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	45.0%	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	11.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	43.5%	—	—	60.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	7.0%	67.0%	—	—	66.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	78.2%	—	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	86.3%	61.1%	52.1%	7.4%	—	67.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	78.5%	72.8%	47.8%	29.7%	—	61.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	53.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	79.5%	76.1%	50.8%	13.4%	—	51.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	81.6%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	71.2%	56.4%	45.2%	—	63.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	81.6%	6.2%	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	86.2%	76.8%	56.6%	38.5%	—	70.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	88.5%	51.7%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	79.2%	53.5%	54.4%	—	67.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	76.5%	45.5%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	88.1%	77.0%	53.7%	57.3%	—	74.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	89.6%	64.8%	50.9%	—	—	71.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	85.8%	67.0%	52.9%	48.0%	—	69.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	59.9%	58.0%	—	—	62.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	59.2%	60.2%	38.8%	0.0%	61.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	80.2%	59.5%	60.5%	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	83.8%	70.8%	62.9%	39.2%	—	59.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	80.2%	69.5%	59.0%	0.0%	—	55.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	79.3%	62.6%	63.7%	31.0%	0.0%	55.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	81.7%	70.7%	64.1%	39.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	80.9%	79.2%	70.2%	52.5%	57.4%	68.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	80.9%	76.2%	66.3%	56.4%	—	66.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	82.7%	66.9%	66.9%	55.4%	63.2%	70.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	90.2%	79.9%	72.4%	65.0%	—	76.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	91.6%	87.8%	75.5%	69.5%	77.8%	81.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	74.0%	56.0%	—	72.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	69.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	70.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	81%	66.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	58%	64.1°F	3.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	51%	63.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261020-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 64°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗